USD/TRY Price Analysis: Approaching key support, deeper losses eyed

USD/TRY falls 0.50% despite broad US dollar strength.
Turkish lira extends recovery from record lows of 8.8049.
The spot eyes 100-SMA on 4H chart, as technicals remain in favor of bears.

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

USD/TRY is seeing a six-day losing steak this Thursday, in a sustained correction from record highs of 8.8049 reached on June 2 after Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdogan spoke to the central bank governor about lowering interest rates in the next two months.

The spot ignores broadly firmer US dollar and Treasury yields, as the corrective decline remains at full swing. More downside remains in the offing, as depicted by USD/TRY’s four-hour technical chart.

The steady decline in the pair from all-time highs has carved out a falling wedge formation, with the price heading towards the lower boundary of the pattern.

At the time of writing, the spot is down about 0.50% on the day, testing multi-day lows just ahead of the 100-simple moving average (SMA) at 8.5249.

A breach of the latter could threaten the wedge support at 8.5138. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to head closer towards the oversold territory, now at 32.10, leaving room for more downside.

The next relevant support area is seen at 8.47, the horizontal trendline in orange.

A bear cross, represented by the 21-SMA cutting through the 50-SMA from above, adds credence to a potential move lower.

USD/TRY: Four-hour chart

Alternatively, the confluence of the 21 and 50-SMAs at 8.6020 will act as a strong resistance, where the falling wedge hurdle also coincides.

Further up, buyers would look to test the June 7 high of 8.6902.

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

AUD/USD turns south toward 0.6900 as USD firms up

AUD/USD sees fresh selling and drops toward 0.6900 in late Asian trading on Monday, as renewed US Dollar strength weighs on the pair amid lingering Middle East and Russia-Ukraine geopolitical tensions. Focus remains on Oil prices, Treasury bond yields, and RBA expectations for fresh trading impetus in the major.

USD/JPY retakes 158.00 amid hawkish BoJ bets, firmer USD

USD/JPY erases losses and retakes 158.00 in the Asian session on Monday, trading within a one-week-old range. Geopolitical uncertainty continues to underpin the US Dollar, despite fading Fed rate hike hopes, supporting the pair's rebound. However, further upside could be capped by hawkish BoJ expectations and looming intervention risks that could support the Japanese Yen.

Gold languishes below $4,200 amid high US yields

Gold trims some losses on Monday, but remains trapped within previous ranges, with upside attempts limited below $4,200 and with two-month lows of $4,110 at a short distance. The recent pullback on the US Dollar Index has provided some support for precious metals although the high US Treasury yields are keeping a floor on US Dollar dips so far.

Pi Network risks a steeper decline as bearish momentum builds

Pi Network extends losses below $0.090 maintaining a steady decline for the fifth consecutive day. The retail demand remains firm, with the notional value of active perpeutals holding above $10 million. The technical outlook for PI remains bearish as bearish momentum mounts.

ISM Services PMI expected to show robust US economy in September

On Monday, we’ll get the latest read on the US services sector when the Institute for Supply Management publishes its September gauge. Consensus points to a marginal uptick to 55.7 from August’s 55.4. If confirmed, the reading is unlikely to significantly dent the current sector’s resilience and confidence in the broader economy.

The Euro is near a one-year low: Inflation could trigger its rebound, not its fall

EUR/USD has fallen to its lowest level since May 2025. The pair hit 1.1312 on Wednesday and trades well below the January peak of 1.2082. The decline reflects a powerful combination of US Dollar strength, geopolitical uncertainty and renewed concerns about Europe's exposure to higher energy prices.