• USD/TRY navigates in new 2022 highs near 16.00.
  • The bid bias in the dollar weighs on the EM FX space.
  • Turkey’s Consumer Confidence is due on Friday.

The Turkish lira loses further ground and helps USD/TRY to clinch new YTD peaks in the area just below the 16.00 mark on Wednesday.

USD/TRY up on dollar gains

USD/TRY advances for the tenth consecutive session so far, a performance last seen back in early November 2021, when the pair posted gains from November 9 to November 23.

The resurgence of buying interest in the greenback coupled with the impasse in the risk-relief rally and geopolitical tensions continue to keep the lira under heavy pressure and bolster at the same time the relentless leg higher in the pair.

What to look for around TRY

USD/TRY keeps the upside well and sound for yet another session and seems to have shifted its focus to the 16.00 mark for the time being. So far, price action in the Turkish currency is expected to gyrate around the performance of energy prices, the broad risk appetite trends, the Fed’s rate path and the developments from the war in Ukraine. Extra risks facing TRY also come from the domestic backyard, as inflation gives no signs of abating, real interest rates remain entrenched in negative figures and the political pressure to keep the CBRT biased towards low interest rates remain omnipresent.

Key events in Turkey this week: Consumer Confidence (Friday).

Eminent issues on the back boiler: FX intervention by the CBRT. Progress (or lack of it) of the government’s new scheme oriented to support the lira via protected time deposits. Constant government pressure on the CBRT vs. bank’s credibility/independence. Bouts of geopolitical concerns. Structural reforms. Upcoming Presidential/Parliamentary elections.

USD/TRY key levels

So far, the pair is gaining 0.57% at 15.9673 and faces the next hurdle at 15.9750 (2022 high May 18) seconded by 18.2582 (all-time high December 20) and then 19.00 (round level). On the other hand, a drop below 14.6836 (monthly low May 4) would expose 14.5458 (monthly low April 12) and finally 14.5136 (weekly low March 29).

 

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