USD/TRY gathers downside momentum post-CBRT, looks to break 7.50

In wake of Thursday’s big rate hike from the CBRT, USD/TRY has broken below 7.60 and continued to press lower.
Significant areas of support lay just ahead of 7.50, ahead of 7.40 and between 7.20-30.

Joel Frank Independent Analyst

USD/TRY has posted a stunning drop today of more than 1,500 pips (or roughly 2%), with TRY strength inspired by a big hike from the CBRT. Having broken below last week’s lows at 7.60 in recent trade, the pair currently resides in the mid-7.50s and is eyeing a test of significant levels of support to the downside.

USD/TRY looking heavy above key support levels

Most immediately, the 9 September high and 25 September lows set between 7.50-7.51, an area the pair has already tested once, but rebounded from, on Thursday. Below those, further key support levels in the form of the 18, 25 and 26 August highs and 10 September lows sit just above the 7.40 level. Beyond that, the 7 May and 12, 19 and 20 lows come into play between 7.10-7.20.

Likely the most important level of support that USD/TRY could face in the coming months is an upwards trendline that has been in play since TRY depreciation really began to pick up pace back in 2018 (see monthly chart below).

USD/TRY daily chart

USD/TRY monthly chart

Author

Joel Frank

Independent Analyst

Joel Frank is an economics graduate from the University of Birmingham and has worked as a full-time financial market analyst since 2018, specialising in the coverage of how developments in the global economy impact financial asset

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