USD: Trade deal between the US and Switzerland moves closer – Commerzbank

It seems that a resolution to the trade conflict is also approaching for some of the few remaining countries without a US deal, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes.

US–Switzerland trade deal nears breakthrough

"Overnight, the US President emphasized that deals with both India and Switzerland could be finalized soon. In the case of Switzerland in particular, reports emerged yesterday evening that such a deal could entail a tariff rate of 15%, which would be on a par with the EU rate and significantly lower than the current rate of 39%. However, insiders emphasized that nothing has been signed yet and that the talks could still fail, as happened in July. Nevertheless, the time for cautious optimism may now have come."

"We have repeatedly emphasized that a deal between Switzerland and the US is our base scenario. A tariff rate of 15% would be the best of difficult scenarios, creating similar conditions to those between the EU and the US. Nevertheless, Swiss growth is likely to suffer for a while longer. We had anticipated a temporary slowdown in growth in Q3/Q4, but, given our cautious optimism, we have been forecasting slightly higher figures than the consensus. This forecast is now more probable. From next year onwards, we should then see growth pick up again."

"However, as is often the case, the details will be crucial in the negotiations with the US. If the Swiss government manages to agree a deal that excludes sectoral tariffs, similar to what the EU has achieved (especially regarding the pharmaceutical industry, for example), then the decision-makers can pat themselves on the back. Of course, this would only be the case if the deal is ultimately approved – and with the current US administration, unfortunately, you can never be sure."