USD/SGD: 2-way trades – OCBC

USD/SGD rebounded as markets continue to trade 2-way, caught between the forces of heightened geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainties associated with Trump presidency. Swings in RMB, JPY continued to drive USDSGD in the near term. Pair was last seen at 1.3472, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Technical patterns suggest signs of bearish pullback

“Daily momentum is mild bullish, but RSI continues to show some signs of turning lower. Bearish divergence on MACD appears to be playing out. Technical patterns suggest signs of bearish pullback in the near term. Support at 1.3340 (200 DMA), 1.3290 (61.8% fibo retracement of Jun high to Oct low). Resistance at 1.3490, 1.3520 levels.”

“MTI revised 2024 growth forecast higher to around 3.5%, up from 2 – 3% previously. For 2025, MTI looks for growth at 1 – 3%. MTI expects growth in Spore’s key trading partners to ease slightly from 2024 levels, especially for the US and China, and flagged that global economic uncertainties have risen, including uncertainty over the policies of the incoming US administration, with the risks tilted to the downside.”

“The downside risks cited included 1/ a further escalation of geopolitical risks (including in the Middle East as well as trade tensions among major economies could lead to higher prices and production costs, as well as greater policy uncertainty, which in turn could weigh on global investment, trade and growth, and 2/ disruptions to the global disinflation process could prompt tighter financial conditions for longer and the desynchronisation of monetary policies could trigger latent vulnerabilities in financial systems.”