USD/RUB trims gains near 63.70, remains under pressure


  • USD/RUB struggles for direction on Friday.
  • Russia CPI came in below expectations in November.
  • OPEC+ meeting expected to announce extra cuts.

The Russian ruble has now managed to regain some buying interest after a negative start of the session and is now prompting USD/RUB to retreat to the 63.70 region.

USD/RUB looks to data, CBR

The pair came under downside pressure after Monday’s rejection from the key 200-day SMA in the mid-64.00s. The leg lower has gained extra pace after spot broke below the 64.04/63.96 band earlier in the week, where coincides the 10-day, 55-day and 21-day SMAs.

RUB has quickly depreciated to the vicinity of the 64.00 mark vs. the buck soon after inflation figures in the Russian economy gauged by the CPI showed consumer prices rose less than expected during November at a monthly 0.3% and 3.5% over the last twelve months. The move up in the pair was, however, ephemeral.

In the meantime, the ruble stays firm on the broad-based view that the CBR will leave rates on hold at next week’s meeting following several rate cuts in the second half of the year. Supporting this view, central bank’s officials have recently ruled out revising the neutral rate – which is set between 6%-7% - while domestic data as of late was in line with the bank’s projection, opening the door to a less dovish stance in the periods to come.

In the US docket, the greenback reversed part of the weekly decline after Non-farm Payrolls came in at 266K for the month of November, largely beating previous estimates.

USD/RUB levels to watch

At the moment the pair is gaining 0.05% at 63.74 and faces the next up barrier at 64.01 (55-day SMA) followed by 64.43 (200-day SMA) and then 64.49 (monthly high Dec.2). On the downside, a drop below 63.66 (monthly low Dec.6) would open the door to 63.61 (low Nov.22) and finally 63.17 (monthly low Nov.4).

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