DXY: Bears face uphill struggle – Societe Generale

Societe Generale’s Kit Juckes argues that Dollar shorts are crowded and struggling to gain traction despite a US Administration preference for a weaker Dollar and lower interest rates. He notes DXY recently broke below key moving averages, but says only a modest rebound would reverse that. Overall, he remains sceptical about aggressively selling the Dollar here.

Crowded shorts struggle despite policy wishes

"Last weekend’s CFTC positioning report showed the biggest net speculative long EUR futures position since 2020. The cumulative USD short isn’t quite as extreme, but is at a very similar level to what we saw in 2023, and after Liberation day."

"The US Administration wants a weaker dollar, and wants lower interest rates, which would make hedging of FX exposure on (huge) foreign owned US equity and bond portfolios cheaper."

"But dollar bears aren’t making any headway."

"DXY broke below 50, 100 and 200-day averages in mid-January but a gain of just over 1% would take it back above those levels."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)