|

USD/KRW to reach 1,285 by 1Q2024 and 1,235 by end-2024 – MUFG

Economists at MUFG Bank expect Asian currencies to appreciate against the Dollar in 2024 with the Korean Won being the front-runner.

A recovery global semiconductor industry is positive for KRW

KRW is set to be front runner among its Asian peers. 

A recovery global semiconductor industry and continued favourable AI trend and electronic cycle would stimulate Korea’s exports and improve trade balance. 

South Korea likely benefit from China’s more balanced recovery next year and deliver a positive growth of exports to China in 2024. 

Additionally, due to the Fed’s policy rate cutting, the negative yield spread between South Korea and the US likely turns positive in 2H2024, providing another layer of support for KRW. 

We forecast USD/KRW to reach 1,285 by 1Q2024 and 1,235 by end-2024.

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

More from FXStreet Insights Team
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD posts modest gains near 1.1650 amid Fed rate cut bets

The EUR/USD pair posts modest gains around 1.1645 during the early Asian session on Monday. The prospect of a US Federal Reserve rate cut at its December meeting on Wednesday could weigh on the US Dollar against the Euro. Later on Monday, the German Industrial Production and Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence reports will be published. 

GBP/USD consolidates around 1.3330 as traders await Fed rate decision

The GBP/USD pair kicks off the new week on a subdued note and oscillates in a narrow trading band, around the 1.3320-1.3325 region, during the Asian session. Spot prices, however, remain close to the highest level since October 22, touched last Thursday, with bulls awaiting a sustained strength and acceptance above the 100-day Simple Moving Average before placing fresh bets.

Gold drifts higher above $4,200 on Fed rate cut expectations

Gold price trades in positive territory near $4,205 during the early Asian session on Monday. The precious metal edges higher as markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at its December meeting on Wednesday. 

Week ahead: Rate cut or market shock? The Fed decides

Fed rate cut widely expected; dot plot and overall meeting rhetoric also matter. Risk appetite is supported by Fed rate cut expectations; cryptos show signs of life. RBA, BoC and SNB also meet; chances of surprises are relatively low. Dollar weakness could linger; both the aussie and the yen best positioned to gain further. Gold and oil eye Ukraine-Russia developments; a peace deal remains elusive.

The Silver disconnection is real

Silver just hit a new all-time high. Neither did gold, nor mining stocks. They all reversed on an intraday basis, but silver’s move to new highs makes it still bullish overall, while the almost complete reversals in gold and miners make the latter technically bearish.

Ripple faces persistent bear risks, shrugging off ETF inflows

Ripple is extending its decline for the second consecutive day, trading at $2.06 at the time of writing on Friday. Sentiment surrounding the cross-border remittance token continues to lag despite steady inflows into XRP spot ETFs.