USD/JPY: Takaichi vs Katayama – OCBC

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Japanese Yen (JPY) came under pressure this morning after PM Takaichi said she will put a growth strategy for the economy by next Summer. USD/JPY last seen at 154.53 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Daily momentum is mild bullish

"The government will aim to boost tax revenue without raising tax rates, boost private-public investments, etc. Delayed BOJ policy normalisation, risk of heavier fiscal burden amid rise in debt servicing costs, increase in social and defence spending and chance of early snap elections (given Takaichi’s high approval rating of 74%) are some factors that may pose downward pressure on JPY in the interim."

"But on the same playbook, Finance Minister Katayama said 'watching FX moves with high sense of urgency'. This helped to nurse JPY losses. Verbal intervention may only slow the JPY’s decline at times but cannot change the broader market momentum. We watch if verbal intervention steps up intensity under the new Finance Minister or eventually progress towards actual intervention, as JPY bears may exercise caution."

"Ultimately for USD/JPY to turn lower would require a softer USD and BOJ showing more commitment to hike. Daily momentum is mild bullish while rise in RSI moderated near overbought conditions. Support at 153.30 (previous double-top), 151.60/80 (21 DMA, 61.8% fibo)."

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

EUR/USD stays defensive below 1.1900 as USD recovers

EUR/USD trades in negative territory for the third consecutive day, below 1.1900 in the European session on Thursday. A modest rebound in the US Dollar is weighing on the pair, despite an upbeat market mood. Traders keep an eye on the US weekly Initial Jobless Claims data for further trading impetus.

GBP/USD holds above 1.3600 after UK data dump

\GBP/USD moves little while holding above 1.3600 in the European session on Thursday, following the release of the UK Q4 preliminary GDP, which showed a 0.1% growth against a 0.2% increase expected. The UK industrial sector activity deteriorated in Decembert, keeping the downward pressure intact on the Pound Sterling.

Gold sticks to modest intraday losses as reduced March Fed rate cut bets underpin USD

Gold languishes near the lower end of its daily range heading into the European session on Thursday. The precious metal, however, lacks follow-through selling amid mixed cues and currently trades above the $5,050 level, well within striking distance of a nearly two-week low touched the previous day.

Cardano eyes short-term rebound as derivatives sentiment improves

Cardano (ADA) is trading at $0.257 at the time of writing on Thursday, after slipping more than 4% so far this week. Derivatives sentiment improves as ADA’s funding rates turn positive alongside rising long bets among traders.

The market trades the path not the past

The payroll number did not just beat. It reset the tone. 130,000 vs. 65,000 expected, with a 35,000 whisper. 79 of 80 economists leaning the wrong way. Unemployment and underemployment are edging lower. For all the statistical fog around birth-death adjustments and seasonal quirks, the core message was unmistakable. The labour market is not cracking.

Sonic Labs’ vertical integration fuels recovery in S token

Sonic, previously Fantom (FTM), is extending its recovery trade at $0.048 at the time of writing, after rebounding by over 12% the previous day. The recovery thesis’ strengths lie in the optimism surrounding Sonic Labs’ Wednesday announcement to shift to a vertically integrated model, aimed at boosting S token utility.