USD/JPY surrenders modest intraday gains to 143.00 after BoJ Tamura’s hawkish remarks
- USD/JPY attracts fresh sellers following intraday gains to the 143.00 neighborhood.
- BoJ Tamura’s hawkish remarks boost the JPY and exert downward pressure on the pair.
- A goodish pickup in the USD demand and the upbeat market mood lend some support.
The USD/JPY pair fails to capitalize on modest Asian session gains to the 143.00 neighborhood and, for now, seems to have stalled its goodish recovery from a nearly nine-month low touched the previous day. Spot prices currently trade around the mid-143.00s, or the lower end of the daily range, and seem vulnerable to prolonging the recent well-established downtrend witnessed over the past two months or so.
Despite further signs that consumer prices in the US are easing overall, the core CPI print indicated that the underlying inflation remains sticky and dashed hopes for an outsized 50 basis points (bps) rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) next week. This, in turn, assists the US Dollar (USD) to regain positive traction and climb back closer to the monthly peak. Apart from this, the risk-on impulse undermined the safe-haven Japanese Yen (JPY) and acted as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair higher.
The JPY was further weighed down by an unexpected decline in Japan's Producer Price Index (PPI), by 0.2% in August. Adding to this, the yearly rate decelerated more than anticipated to 2.5% during the reported month from 3.0% in July. That said, comments by Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Naoki Tamura, saying that the path towards ending the easy policy is still very long, reaffirms bets for a further rise in borrowing costs by the end of this year and helps limit losses for the JPY.
Furthermore, the markets have fully priced in a 25 bps Fed rate cut move at its upcoming policy meeting on September 17-18, marking a big divergence in comparison to a hawkish BoJ. This, in turn, prompts fresh selling around the USD/JPY pair and turns out to be a key factor behind the intraday pullback. Traders now look forward to the release of the US PPI for a fresh impetus, though the fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the downside.
Bank of Japan FAQs
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%.
The Bank of Japan has embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy since 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds.
The Bank’s massive stimulus has caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process has exacerbated more recently due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which have opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy of holding down rates has led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen.
A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices have led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which has exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. With wage inflation becoming a cause of concern, the BoJ looks to move away from ultra loose policy, while trying to avoid slowing the activity too much.
Author
Haresh Menghani
FXStreet
Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.
