|

USD/JPY slides as US shutdown fears boost Yen’s safe-haven appeal

  • The Japanese Yen gains as USD/JPY falls for a third straight session amid safe-haven demand.
  • The Greenback stays on the defensive as investors brace for a potential US government shutdown.
  • Focus turns to Wednesday’s Japanese Tankan survey and US ADP Employment and manufacturing PMI releases.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) gains traction against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, with USD/JPY extending losses for a third straight day as the looming United States (US) government shutdown weighs on the Greenback and bolsters safe-haven demand for the Yen. At the time of writing, the pair is trading near 147.85, down nearly 0.5% on the day.

Investors largely shrugged off Japan’s weak economic activity data released earlier in the day, instead turning their attention to the political gridlock in Washington. US President Donald Trump, speaking at the White House on Tuesday, warned that “we’ll probably have a shutdown” and said his party “can cut benefits” as part of spending negotiations, adding that “Democrats are taking a risk” by resisting his proposals.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Tuesday that short government shutdowns have little impact on the economy, but cautioned that the overall effect depends on the breadth and duration of the shutdown.

The remarks came as a Tuesday midnight deadline looms, leaving the government on track for a potential shutdown from Wednesday unless lawmakers strike a last-minute deal.

Beyond the shutdown debate, Goolsbee said the US labor market remains “pretty steady,” noting that while payroll growth is slowing, other job indicators have stayed broadly stable. He also warned that the country “seems to be headed into a new wave of tariffs,” adding that he hopes these measures prove to be a one-time, moderate price increase. Goolsbee cautioned that if inflation proves more persistent, it would pose a difficult scenario for the Federal Reserve.

Across the Pacific, US macro releases offered limited support to the Dollar. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 94.2 in September from a revised 97.8 in August, while JOLTS Job Openings for August edged up to 7.23 million from 7.21 million in July, broadly in line with expectations.

Looking ahead, focus shifts to upcoming economic data from both sides of the Pacific. In Japan, the third-quarter Tankan survey is due on Wednesday, while in the United States, attention turns to the ADP Employment Change report along with S&P Global’s and ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings, also scheduled for Wednesday.

Economic Indicator

ADP Employment Change

The ADP Employment Change is a gauge of employment in the private sector released by the largest payroll processor in the US, Automatic Data Processing Inc. It measures the change in the number of people privately employed in the US. Generally speaking, a rise in the indicator has positive implications for consumer spending and is stimulative of economic growth. So a high reading is traditionally seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

Read more.

Next release: Wed Oct 01, 2025 12:15

Frequency: Monthly

Consensus: 50K

Previous: 54K

Source: ADP Research Institute

Traders often consider employment figures from ADP, America’s largest payrolls provider, report as the harbinger of the Bureau of Labor Statistics release on Nonfarm Payrolls (usually published two days later), because of the correlation between the two. The overlaying of both series is quite high, but on individual months, the discrepancy can be substantial. Another reason FX traders follow this report is the same as with the NFP – a persistent vigorous growth in employment figures increases inflationary pressures, and with it, the likelihood that the Fed will raise interest rates. Actual figures beating consensus tend to be USD bullish.

Author

Vishal Chaturvedi

I am a macro-focused research analyst with over four years of experience covering forex and commodities market. I enjoy breaking down complex economic trends and turning them into clear, actionable insights that help traders stay ahead of the curve.

More from Vishal Chaturvedi
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD gathers recovery momentum, trades near 1.1750

Following the correction seen in the second half of the previous week, EUR/USD gathers bullish momentum and trades in positive territory near 1.1750. The US Dollar (USD) struggles to attract buyers and supports the pair as investors await Tuesday's GDP data ahead of the Christmas holiday. 

GBP/USD rises toward 1.3450 on renewed USD weakness

GBP/USD turns north on Monday and avances to the 1.3450 region. The US Dollar (USD) stays on the back foot to begin the new week as investors adjust their positions before tomorrow's third-quarter growth data, helping the pair stretch higher.

Gold extends rally to new record-high above $4,420

Gold extends its rally in the American session on Monday and trades at a new all-time-high above $4,420, gaining nearly 2% on a daily basis. The potential for a re-escalation of the tensions in the Middle East on news of Israel planning to attack Iran allows Gold to capitalize on safe-haven flows.

Top 10 crypto predictions for 2026: Institutional demand and big banks could lift Bitcoin

Bitcoin could hit record highs in 2026, according to Grayscale and top crypto asset managers. Institutional demand and digital-asset treasury companies set to catalyze gains in Bitcoin.

Ten questions that matter going into 2026

2026 may be less about a neat “base case” and more about a regime shift—the market can reprice what matters most (growth, inflation, fiscal, geopolitics, concentration). The biggest trap is false comfort: the same trades can look defensive… right up until they become crowded.

XRP steadies above $1.90 support as fund inflows and retail demand rise

Ripple (XRP) is stable above support at $1.90 at the time of writing on Monday, after several attempts to break above the $2.00 hurdle failed to materialize last week. Meanwhile, institutional interest in the cross-border remittance token has remained steady.