USD/JPY remains above 152.50, downside appears as Trump postpones reciprocal tariffs
- USD/JPY struggled after President Trump's delay of reciprocal tariffs.
- The US Dollar weakens as US yields decline across the curve.
- Japan's Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa stated that authorities will take appropriate action regarding US reciprocal tariffs.
USD/JPY remains steady after registering losses in the previous session, trading around 152.60 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair faced challenges following US President Donald Trump’s decision to postpone the implementation of reciprocal tariffs. Additionally, the US Dollar (USD) weakens amid falling US yields across the curve, despite ongoing concerns about a global trade war. Investors now await the release of US Retail Sales data later in the day.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the US Dollar’s value against six major currencies, remains steady after registering losses in the previous session. The DXY hovers around 107.00 with 2-year and 10-year yields on US Treasury bonds standing at 4.31% and 4.53%, respectively, at the time of writing.
Core PPI inflation in the United States (US) rose to 3.6% YoY in January, exceeding the expected 3.3% but slightly below the revised 3.7% (previously reported as 3.5%). This has reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will delay rate cuts until the second half of the year. Additionally, persistently strong inflation could further support the outlook for the Fed to keep interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% for an extended period.
On Friday, Japan's Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa stated that the authorities will respond appropriately to US reciprocal tariffs. Akazawa further stated that the weak Japanese Yen (JPY) has a variety of impacts on Japan's real economy.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) gained support following Thursday’s release of stronger-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) data from Japan, reinforcing expectations of further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The data highlights expanding inflationary pressures in Japan, further supported by recent wage growth figures, strengthening the case for additional BoJ rate hikes.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
Author
Akhtar Faruqui
FXStreet
Akhtar Faruqui is a Forex Analyst based in New Delhi, India. With a keen eye for market trends and a passion for dissecting complex financial dynamics, he is dedicated to delivering accurate and insightful Forex news and analysis.
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