|

USD/JPY refreshes daily low on weaker US ADP report, focus remains on FOMC

  • USD/JPY turns lower for the second straight day and is pressured by a combination of factors.
  • Bets for smaller Fed rate hikes, sliding US bond yields, weaker US ADP report weigh on the USD.
  • The cautious market mood benefits the safe-haven JPY and contributes to the modest downall.
  • The downside seems cushioned as the focus remains glued to the critical FOMC policy decision.

The USD/JPY pair meets with a fresh supply near the 130.40 region on Wednesday and drifts into negative territory for the second successive day. Spot prices remain depressed through the early North American session and slide to a fresh daily low, below mid-129.00s in reaction to a weaker-than-expected US ADP report.

In fact, Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reported that the US private sector employers added 106 jobs in January, down sharply from the previous month's upwardly revised 253K. Furthermore, the headline print was well below consensus estimates pointing to a reading of 178K, validating expectations that the Fed will slow the pace of its policy tightening. This, in turn, continues to weigh on the US Treasury bond yields, which undermines the US Dollar and exerts pressure on the USD/JPY pair.

The Japanese Yen (JPY), on the other hand, is drawing support from speculation that high inflation may invite a more hawkish stance from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) later this year. Adding to this, a softer risk tone - as depicted by a generally negative trading sentiment around the equity markets - further benefits the JPY's safe-haven status. This is seen as another factor acting as a headwind for the USD/JPY pair. The downside, however, seems limited as traders await the critical FOMC decision.

The US central bank is widely expected to deliver a smaller 25 bps. The focus, meanwhile, will remain on the accompanying monetary policy statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks at the post-meeting press conference. Investors will look for cues about the future rate-hike path, which will play a key role in influencing the USD price dynamics. Wednesday's US economic docket also features the release of ISM Manufacturing PMI, though might do little to provide any impetus to the USD/JPY pair.

Technical levels to watch

USD/JPY

Overview
Today last price129.75
Today Daily Change-0.39
Today Daily Change %-0.30
Today daily open130.14
 
Trends
Daily SMA20130.33
Daily SMA50133.38
Daily SMA100139.19
Daily SMA200136.79
 
Levels
Previous Daily High130.53
Previous Daily Low129.74
Previous Weekly High131.12
Previous Weekly Low129.02
Previous Monthly High134.78
Previous Monthly Low127.22
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%130.04
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%130.23
Daily Pivot Point S1129.74
Daily Pivot Point S2129.35
Daily Pivot Point S3128.95
Daily Pivot Point R1130.53
Daily Pivot Point R2130.93
Daily Pivot Point R3131.32

Author

Haresh Menghani

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

More from Haresh Menghani
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD rises to 0.6950 as USD slips on Fed's Warsh

AUD/USD regains traction and extends the bounce toward 0.6950 in the Asian session on Friday. Fed Chair Warsh's comments reinforce the selling pressure on the US Dollar, allowing the pair to stretch higher. Warsh said that he remains committed to delivering price stability without giving away anything on future interest rate path.

USD/JPY falls in symc with USD, gives up 158.00 after Warsh's speech

USD/JPY has come under fresh selling pressure and gives up 158.00 in the Asian session on Friday amid the emergence of fresh US Dollar selling. Fed Chair Warsh's non-committal commentary on the future tightening path, weighs on the US Dollar and the pair.

Gold looks vacillating above $4,150

Gold alternates gains with losses below the key $4,200 mark per troy ounce on Friday. The yellow metal’s irresolute price action comes in response to a modest pullback in the US Dollar and a tepid recovery in US Treasury yields across the board.

Bitcoin steadies at $82,000: The five forces crushing the Uptober rally

Crypto markets have remained under pressure so far in October, with Bitcoin (BTC) sliding below $80,000 earlier this week before recovering to around $82,000 on Friday, as macroeconomic headwinds and cooling demand weigh on the market.

The Fed just got a second hot inflation number. Here's what the diesel signal is really saying
The Federal Reserve (Fed) faces a renewed inflation challenge after two consecutive reports showed price pressure intensifying across the US economy. September's Consumer Price Index (CPI) confirmed accelerating consumer inflation, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) revealed an even sharper rise in business costs. Behind both reports lies a common factor: energy prices.
Everyone's dumping Gold after hot US inflation. Here's why $4,100 could be a floor, not a cliff
Gold (XAU/USD) is recovering from a sharp sell-off triggered by hotter-than-expected United States (US) inflation data released on Wednesday. The precious metal briefly plunged toward $4,073 as investors increased their bets on further Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes before recovering as US Treasury yields and the US Dollar (USD) reversed their initial gains.