|

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Rebounds above 153.00 as buyers stepped in

  • USD/JPY rebounds, erasing prior 100-pip loss as yields stabilize and Dollar demand strengthens.
  • Support sits near 20-day SMA and lower trend levels, while resistance capped near recent highs.
  • RSI supports bullish continuation if price clears key resistance, signaling momentum buildup ahead.

The USD/JPY stages a recovery on Friday with buyers claiming 153.00, an indication that the uptrend might resume in the short term. The 100-pip or 0.68% Thursday’s loss was offset by traders buying the US Dollar due to its close correlation with the US 10-year Treasury note yield, which was steady during the trading day.

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The USD/JPY technical picture shows that buyers regained momentum at around 153.00 with the next support level seen at the 20-day SMA at 152.52. Although buyers kept the exchange rate from falling to 152.80, a breach of the latter opens the door towards the 20-day SMA and on further weakness, the October 29 low lies next at 151.53.

However, buyers remain in charge as depicted by the RSI. That said, if USD/JPY rises above 154.00, the next resistance would be the November 4 peak at 154.48, followed by 155.00.

USD/JPY Price Chart – Daily

USD/JPY Daily Chart

Japanese Yen Price This week

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies this week. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.29%-0.22%-0.41%0.11%0.76%1.70%0.05%
EUR0.29%0.07%-0.05%0.40%1.04%1.99%0.34%
GBP0.22%-0.07%-0.28%0.33%0.97%1.92%0.27%
JPY0.41%0.05%0.28%0.48%1.15%2.09%0.58%
CAD-0.11%-0.40%-0.33%-0.48%0.59%1.57%-0.06%
AUD-0.76%-1.04%-0.97%-1.15%-0.59%0.95%-0.70%
NZD-1.70%-1.99%-1.92%-2.09%-1.57%-0.95%-1.62%
CHF-0.05%-0.34%-0.27%-0.58%0.06%0.70%1.62%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

Author

Christian Borjon Valencia

Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.

More from Christian Borjon Valencia
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD bounces off weekly low on Israel-Lebanon ceasefire

AUD/USD recovers slightly from the weekly low during the Asian session on Thursday as a new Israel-Lebanon ceasefire keeps a lid on the safe-haven US Dollar. Meanwhile, the US and Iran remain at odds over key issues, which, along with hawkish Fed expectations, act as a tailwind for the buck. Furthermore, diminishing odds of an RBA rate hike in June cap the currency pair as traders keenly await the US NFP report on Friday.

USD/JPY remains close to 160.00 intervention threshold on Mideast tensions

USD/JPY struggles to find acceptance above 160.00 and retreats from a one-month high during the Asian session on Thursday amid fears that authorities will step in again to prop up the Japanese Yen. Furthermore, a new Israel-Lebanon ceasefire caps the US Dollar and supports the currency pair. However, renewed US-Iran tensions favor the USD bulls amid Fed rate hike bets and also hold back the JPY bulls from placing aggressive bets amid economic risks stemming from the Middle East conflict, suggesting that dips are likely to be bought into.

Gold bounces off one-week low; upside seems capped on Iran uncertainty

Gold recovers from a one-week low touched during the Asian session on Thursday, as news of an Israel-Lebanon ceasefire acts as a headwind for the safe-haven US Dollar. However, renewed hostilities in the Gulf, along with stalled US-Iran peace talks, keep geopolitical risks in play and should support the USD. Moreover, US-Iran tensions remain supportive of higher Crude Oil prices, fueling inflationary concerns and bolstering bets for higher interest rates for longer. This should cap the non-yielding bullion and warrants caution for bulls.


Bitcoin drops below $65K amid reinforced bear market signals

Bitcoin dipped further below $65,000 on Wednesday, with onchain data from Glassnode signaling a market firmly in a bear phase. The decline has pushed prices back into a key valuation range between the Realized Price and the True Market Mean. Glassnode noted that a key shift in market structure has also emerged.

The upside-down math of debt
In 2010, Professors Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff published a paper, Growth in a Time of Debt, which instantly went viral. The main thesis of the paper was that once a government's debt-to-GDP ratio crosses above 90%, a financial crisis and default are around the corner.
Recession on paper: What really moves the Canadian Loonie now?

Statistics Canada handed the headline writers a gift and the analysts a headache. Real GDP shrank 0.1% on an annualized basis in the first quarter, and with the fourth quarter of 2025 revised down to a 1.0% contraction, that is two negative quarters in a row, the textbook definition of a technical recession and Canada's first since the pandemic.