|

USD/JPY Price Analysis: Struggles for direction, though a bullish-engulfing pattern loom

  • USD/JPY tests 50-day EMA at 133.85; bullish-engulfing pattern hints at a potential uptrend.
  • Downside risks loom, with the 100-day EMA at 132.83 in sight if 134.00 support breaks.

The USD/JPY rises after dropping to a weekly low of 133.50, advances 0.42%, spurred by buyers stepping in at around solid technical support level. An upbeat April Nonfarm Payrolls report also lifted the US Dollar (USD) vs. the Japanese Yen (JPY) safety. At the time of writing, the USD/JPY is trading at 134.81 after dipping to a low of 133.88.

USD/JPY Price Action

From a daily chart perspective, the USD/JPY remains neutrally biased, though testing the 50-day Exponential Moving Average at 133.85, as the pair battles on closing above the May 4 daily high of 134.85. If USD/JPY achieves a daily close above the latter, the major will form a bullish-engulfing candlestick pattern, keeping buyers hopeful of higher prices.

In that outcome, the USD/JPY next resistance would be 135.00, and the March 15 daily high at 135.11. Once cleared, the USD/JPY would have a clear path to 136.00 until testing the 200-day EMA at 136.99.

Oscillators, like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator, aim up and is still above neutral territory. The Rate of Change (RoC) of the last three days suggests that sellers are losing momentum. Therefore, the USD/JPY would continue to uptrend.

However, if USD/JPY falls below 134.00, it would expose the 50-day EMA at 133.85, followed by the 133.00 figure. Downside risks would pave the way toward the 100-day EMA At 132.83.

USD/JPY Daily Chart

USD/JPY Daily chart

USD/JPY

Overview
Today last price134.77
Today Daily Change0.49
Today Daily Change %0.36
Today daily open134.28
 
Trends
Daily SMA20134.28
Daily SMA50133.92
Daily SMA100132.86
Daily SMA200136.98
 
Levels
Previous Daily High134.88
Previous Daily Low133.5
Previous Weekly High136.56
Previous Weekly Low133.01
Previous Monthly High136.56
Previous Monthly Low130.63
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%134.03
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%134.35
Daily Pivot Point S1133.56
Daily Pivot Point S2132.84
Daily Pivot Point S3132.19
Daily Pivot Point R1134.94
Daily Pivot Point R2135.6
Daily Pivot Point R3136.31

Author

Christian Borjon Valencia

Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.

More from Christian Borjon Valencia
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD revisits 1.3530; Dollar pushes harder

GBP/USD adds to the weekly correction and recedes toward the 1.3530 zone on Friday. Indeed, Cable faces increasing selling pressure on the back of extra gains in the Greenback, particularly fuelled by Chair Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium and the US NFP Annual Revision (-79K).

EUR/USD breaches below 1.1600, multi-day lows

EUR/USD now accelerates its decline and retreats to seven-day troughs in the sub-1.1600 region at the end of the week. The pair’s pullback comes on the back of the strong rebound in the US Dollar after Chair Warsh delivered a hawkish message in Jackson Hole, while the US NFP Annual Revision came in at -79K.

Gold seems vulnerable above $4,450 as Fed hike bets, Iran risks support USD

Gold recovers slightly from a one-and-a-half-week low, touched during the Asian session on Monday, though any meaningful recovery seems elusive. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech was perceived as hawkish, raising expectations for a September rate hike. Adding to this, fresh US strikes on Iran keep the geopolitical risk premium in play, which acts as a tailwind for the safe-haven US Dollar and should cap the bullion.

Week ahead: RBNZ and BoC decide on rates ahead of all-important US NFP
The US dollar staged a modest recovery this week, perhaps as traders decided to cover some of their short positions amid slightly stickier or in-line US PCE inflation numbers for July, confounding expectations of softer prints amid the softness revealed in the CPI data for the month.
CFTC Report: CAD short covering leads; Gold buying surges
The week in one sentence: speculative positioning shifted more constructively in the week to August 25. CAD short covering led the move, followed by a broad reduction in EUR shorts and renewed Gold buying. GBP and VIX positioning also improved, while JPY positioning deteriorated and WTI flows diverged from weaker prices.
Diesel’s record $100 warning: The oil shock hiding in plain sight

The Oil market may look calmer than it did a few months ago, but diesel is sending a very different message. The US diesel crack spread, the premium of ultra-low sulphur diesel futures over WTI, recently surged above $100 per barrel for the first time, reaching an intraday record of just over $102.00.