USD/JPY Price Analysis: Focus on the monthly close

USD/JPY trades close to a long-held 200-month SMA.
A violation there would shift risk in favor of a drop to deeper support levels.

Omkar Godbole FXStreet Contributor

USD/JPY is currently trading near 104.10, representing a 0.12% drop on the day. The bears failed to establish a foothold under the 200-month Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 103.92 earlier this month.

The bears have failed several times in the past four years to force a monthly close under the long-term average.

As such, the 200-month SMA is the level to defend for the bulls. If the pair ends below that average line on Monday, more substantial selling pressure may emerge, yield a more profound drop toward 101.18 (March low).

A close above resistance at 104.76 (Nov. 24 high) would confirm a short-term bullish reversal and open the doors to 105.68 (Nov. 11 high).

Monthly chart

Trend: Bearish below 200-month MA

Technical levels

XAU/USD

Overview
Today last price	1810.2
Today Daily Change	1.10
Today Daily Change %	0.06
Today daily open	1809.1

Trends
Daily SMA20	1874.6
Daily SMA50	1888.79
Daily SMA100	1910.41
Daily SMA200	1798.36

Levels
Previous Daily High	1818.36
Previous Daily Low	1804.92
Previous Weekly High	1899.14
Previous Weekly Low	1852.8
Previous Monthly High	1933.3
Previous Monthly Low	1860
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1813.23
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1810.05
Daily Pivot Point S1	1803.23
Daily Pivot Point S2	1797.35
Daily Pivot Point S3	1789.79
Daily Pivot Point R1	1816.67
Daily Pivot Point R2	1824.23
Daily Pivot Point R3	1830.11

Author

Omkar Godbole

FXStreet Contributor

Omkar Godbole, editor and analyst, joined FXStreet after four years as a research analyst at several Indian brokerage companies.

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