USD/JPY: More yen pain could catch Japanese firms off guard – Reuters poll

The vast majority of Japanese companies expect the yen to firm against the dollar by year-end, a Reuters monthly poll showed on Thursday. The survey also mentioned suggesting further weakness in the local currency could catch businesses off guard.

Key findings

During the Aug. 31 - Sept. 9 survey period, the yen was trading in a range of 138-145 to the dollar.

The survey was conducted before Japanese authorities this week gave strong indications that they were uncomfortable with the currency's sharp declines and appeared to be preparing to intervene to prop it up. On Wednesday, the yen was at 143.62 to the dollar.

Asked how they expected the yen to move against the dollar by year-end, 45% of firms - the biggest chunk - pegged it at 136-140, followed by 28% at 131-135, the survey showed.

Some 11% put it at 126-130, while 3% set it at 120-125. Only 13% saw it weakening further from 141, meaning many firms could be put on the back foot if the currency were to weaken again.

Separately, a slim majority of respondents want the yen to rise moderately while 28% want it to fall modestly.

A slim majority said they don't expect the government's easing of border controls to help inbound tourism recover.

One-third said they were unaffected by inbound tourism.

The Reuters Corporate Survey, conducted for Reuters by Nikkei Research, canvassed around 500 big non-financial Japanese firms on condition of anonymity, allowing them to speak more freely.

Separately, the survey also found that three quarters of firms are concerned about the possibility of an incident in Taiwan, given the political sensitivies around the island claimed by China.

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