USD/JPY might drop to 146.30 – UOB Group

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range between 146.70 and 147.70. In the longer run, sharp declines appear excessive, but USD could drop to 146.30. The odds for a continued decline below this level are not high, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

USD is likely to trade between 146.70 and 147.70

24-HOUR VIEW: "On Wednesday, USD dropped to a low of 146.57 and then rebounded. Yesterday, we were of the view that 'the sharp drop appears excessive, and instead of continuing to decline, USD is more likely to trade in a range between 146.70 and 148.00.' USD subsequently fluctuated between 146.58 and 147.51, closing slightly higher by 0.12% at 147.23. The price action provides no fresh clues, and we continue to expect USD to trade in a range today, most likely between 146.70 and 147.70."

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We continue to hold the same view as yesterday (02 Oct, spot at 147.30). As highlighted, 'the recent sharp declines appear excessive, but USD could drop to 146.30.' However, we noted that 'the odds of a continued drop below this level are not high.' Overall, only a breach of 148.20 (‘strong resistance’ level was at 148.55 yesterday) would indicate that the decline in USD is stabilising."

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

GBP/USD hits fresh three-month highs above 1.3550

GBP/USD stretches north and refreshes three-month highs above 1.3500 in the European session on Monday. The prevalent US Dollar selling bias favors bullish traders and suggests that the path of least resistance for the pair remains to the upside.

EUR/USD extends gains above 1.1600 on USD weakness

EUR/USD extends its advance above 1.1600 in European trading hours on Monday. The US Dollar resumes its downside amid weaker-than-expected US economic data, shifting Fed expectations and fading geopolitical risk premium.

Gold looks to build strength above $4,400 amid fading Fed hike bets

Gold builds on Friday's bounce from the $4,300 neighborhood and attracts some follow-through buyers at the start of a new week. The commodity is now looking to extend momentum above the $4,400 mark, though it remains below the highest level since June 5, touched last Thursday, amid mixed fundamental cues.

Pepe defends a key support amid mixed retail demand

Pepe is up nearly 2% after a 10% decline last week, showing signs of a mild recovery, while broader crypto market risk appetite remains weak. PEPE derivatives data point to a mixed outlook, as Open Interest declines while funding rates turn positive. Technically, PEPE must hold above its $0.00000255 support floor to avoid a downside of over 10%.

Why the Fed replaced the Treasury buyers who left

When Japan moved to defend the Yen, the arrangement that drew the attention was the Federal Reserve's repo facility for foreign monetary authorities, which lets an approved foreign central bank raise dollars by temporarily handing Treasuries to the Fed rather than selling them into the market. The logic was elegant. Japan gets dollars, the Treasury market avoids a forced seller, and American long rates are spared. Coverage treated it as the mechanism that made the intervention work.

Why is Crude Oil priced for a reopening the ships haven't made?

Fourteen vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday. Before the war, the count ran near 120 a day. In the sessions since the waterway was publicly declared open, Brent has drifted back to $87 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $81, both a little lower again on Wednesday, with daily momentum on each unwound from the top of its range in late July to the low twenties now.