|

USD/JPY continues to set higher highs ahead of US PCE Price Index

  • USD/JPY reverses an intraday slide to the 134.00 mark and rallies to a new YTD peak.
  • BoJ Governor candidate Ueda's dovish remarks weigh on JPY and act as a tailwind for the pair.
  • Bets for additional rate hikes by the Fed underpin the USD and remain supportive of the move.
  • Traders now look forward to the US Core PCE Price Index before placing fresh directional bets.

The USD/JPY pair rallies around 140 pips from the 134.00 neighbourhood on Friday and climbs above the two-month high touched the previous day. The pair currently trades above the 135.00 psychological mark and seems poised to build on the positive momentum.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) did get a minor boost on the last day of the week after data released earlier today showed that Japan's core consumer inflation hit a new 41-year high in January. The initial reaction, however, fades rather quickly in reaction to the incoming Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda's dovish remarks. Addressing the parliament for the first time since his nomination, Ueda said that the recent rise in consumer inflation was driven mostly by surging import costs of raw materials, rather than strong domestic demand.

Ueda added that the BoJ's current ultra-loose monetary policy stance is a necessary and appropriate means to steadily meet the 2% target. In contrast, the Federal Reserve is expected to stick to its hawkish stance. In fact, the FOMC minutes released on Wednesday showed that officials were determined to raise interest rates further to fully gain control over inflation. This remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields, which, in turn, keeps the US Dollar pinned near a multi-week high and further lends support to the USD/JPY pair.

The aforementioned fundamental backdrop supports prospects for a further near-term appreciating move. The technical picture remains biased towards bullish bets as the pair continues to inch higher, setting higher highs with each day, and continuing the uptrend that began at the start of the year. Momentum indicators such as the RSI , moreover, are still supportive of further gains as they still remain out of the overbought zone. 

The USD bulls, however, might refrain from placing aggressive bets and wait for the release of the US Core PCE Price Index - the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. The data should influence expectations above the Fed's future rate-hike path and drive the USD demand, providing some impetus to the USD/JPY pair. Nevertheless, spot prices remain on track to register gains for the second straight week and the fourth week in the previous five.

Technical levels to watch

USD/JPY

Overview
Today last price135.16
Today Daily Change0.52
Today Daily Change %0.39
Today daily open134.64
 
Trends
Daily SMA20132.18
Daily SMA50131.8
Daily SMA100137.25
Daily SMA200137.04
 
Levels
Previous Daily High135.36
Previous Daily Low134.49
Previous Weekly High135.11
Previous Weekly Low131.27
Previous Monthly High134.78
Previous Monthly Low127.22
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%134.82
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%135.03
Daily Pivot Point S1134.3
Daily Pivot Point S2133.95
Daily Pivot Point S3133.42
Daily Pivot Point R1135.17
Daily Pivot Point R2135.71
Daily Pivot Point R3136.05

Author

Haresh Menghani

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

More from Haresh Menghani
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD extends the range play above 0.7200 as traders await US inflation data

AUD/USD is seen extending its consolidative price move above 0.7200 during the Asian session on Thursday amid mixed cues. Rising RBA rate-hike bets keep the Aussie close to its highest level since May 14. However, hawkish Fed expectations and escalating US-Iran tensions offer some support to the US Dollar, capping the currency pair as traders await US inflation figures.


USD/JPY consolidates around 153.50 as bears turn cautious ahead of US inflation

USD/JPY stabilizes above 153.50 during the Asian session on Thursday, but remains near a seven-month low set earlier this week as hawkish BoJ repricing continues to underpin the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, rising September Fed rate-hike bets and escalating US-Iran tensions help ease US Dollar selling pressure, offering some support to the currency pair ahead of US inflation figures.

Gold sticks to gains, eyes $4,450 as USD remains depressed ahead of US inflation data

Gold turns higher following an intraday dip to sub-$4,400 levels, and moves further away from a one-week low touched the previous day. The commodity, however, remains below the $4,450 pivotal point as bulls seem hesitant ahead of US inflation figures. The US Producer Price Index report will be published later today, while the US Consumer Price Index is due on Friday.

Raydium's rally signals trend reversal amid network growth, buyback

Raydium maintains a firm bullish tone, posting nearly 9% gains, and extending its 41% rally from Sunday. Solana-based Decentralized Exchange is witnessing a surge in network activity and growth amid new token launches. The technical outlook for Raydium signals a potential upside toward $1.50 as momentum holds firm despite overbought conditions.

European Central Bank to resume interest rate hikes in September as inflation, energy risks rise

The European Central Bank is expected to raise the interest rate on the Main Refinancing Operations and the Deposit Facility by 25 basis points to 2.65% and 2.50%, respectively. The ECB will announce the decision on Thursday at 12:15 GMT.

Venezuela’s 65-billion-barrel Oil deal could reshape America’s inflation fight
The United States (US) has secured unprecedented access to part of Venezuela’s vast Oil reserves. The timing is particularly significant as the war with Iran is disrupting Middle Eastern supplies, keeping energy prices elevated and reviving concerns about inflation.