USD/JPY: intraday rallies are indicated to fail circa 111.40 - Commerzbank

Karen Jones, Analyst at Commerzbank, anticipates a near-term rebound for the USD/JPY pair but continue to hold a neutral to negative long-term bias below 114.38/82 major resistance.

Key quotes:

“USD/JPY has reached the 61.8% retracement at 110.15. We note the 13 count on the 240 minute chart and would allow for a near term rebound, intraday rallies are indicated to fail circa 111.40.”

“Failure at 110.15 targets the 108.90 Fibonacci retracement and allows for a move to the 107.34 2012-2018 uptrend.”

“Initial resistance lies at 111.73/112.05 (200 day ma). Above here lies the 113.64/75 December highs. There is a lot of resistance directly overhead – namely the 113.92 2015-2018 downtrend line. Above here sits the 114.38/82 major resistance, we continue to favour failure.”