Jeremy Stretch and Bipan Rai, analysts at CIBC, expect the USD/JPY pair to drop to 105 by Q4 19 and to trade at 103 by Q2 2020.
Key Quotes:
“With signals of strengthening domestic fundamentals, such as falling unemployment and GDP growth inching upwards in Q1, we maintain a bias towards an outperforming JPY. In terms of market positioning, since the end of April, we have seen net negative JPY positional skew. The unwind in short holdings comes as trade tensions resumed and market risk appetite significantly deteriorated. However, despite the short bias being pared back to below the oneyear moving average, we expect the retreat to continue, should macro risk dynamics remain challenging into H2."
“The positive correlation between the S&P index and USDJPY has witnessed a significant uptrend since last September. The advance underlines that any unwind in risk sentiment, likely a function of overpriced Fed rate assumptions, encourages JPY outperformance, in particular in several of the risk-orientated crosses.”
“Despite the BoJ pledging to take action as necessary, we expect BoJ policy inertia in the wake of the surprise bounce in Q1 GDP, driven in large part by unexpectedly resilient business investment. Should trade tensions continue to worsen, expect increasing debate pertaining to additional policy stimulus as markets fret about the impending hike in the consumption tax, though the room to manoeuvre remains limited.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD holds above 0.6500 in thin trading
The Australian Dollar managed to recover ground against its American rival after AUD/USD fell to 0.6484. The upbeat tone of Wall Street underpinned the Aussie despite broad US Dollar strength and tepid Australian data.
EUR/USD comfortable below 1.0800 lower lows at sight
The EUR/USD pair lost ground on Thursday and settled near a fresh March low of 1.0774. Strong US data and hawkish Fed speakers comments lead the way ahead of the release of the US PCE Price Index on Friday.
Gold price finishes Thursday’s session set to reach new all-time highs
Gold price rallied during the North American session on Thursday and hit a new all-time high of $2,225 in the mid-North American session. Precious metal prices are trending higher even though US Treasury yields are advancing, underpinning the Greenback.
Bitcoin price extends retreat from $69K as old whales shift their holdings to new whales
Bitcoin price continues to move further away from the $69,000 threshold, gaining ground as BTC bulls hope for a retest of the $73,777 peak. This is because of the general assumption that clearing this blockade would set the tone for a reach higher, marking a new all-time high.
Bears have been standing before a steamroller so far this year
Despite a pushback on rate cuts from Christopher Waller, and what was supposed to be cautious trading sentiment ahead of critical US inflation data released later on Friday, the S&P 500 rose on Thursday, marking its best first-quarter performance in five years.