|

USD/JPY bulls eye a break of key daily resistance with US CPI eyed

  • USD/JPY traders await the US CPI data for the next major scheduled catalyst. 
  • The price is coiled and an inverse daily head and shoulders could be in the making.

USD/JPY is attempting to move higher during a light schedule in the North American session but has run into offers as US stocks climb to fresh highs for the week. at the time of writing, USD/JPY is trading back to flat for the day at 132.35 but has travelled between a low of 132.06 and 132.87 the high for Tuesday and the week so far.

Wall Street's main indexes are bid as investors keenly await the US consumer price index which seems to have weighed on the US Dollar and US Treasury yields in the recent hours of the session. The 10-year yield is now down by 1.66% and meeting an hourly support structure near 3.563%. If this were to hold, this would offer the greenback some support also and fend off the USD/JPY bears leaving the cross to tread water into the CPI data on Thursday where traders expect to get more clarity on the Federal Reserve's rate hike trajectory.

In this regard, analysts at TD Securities explained that they are looking for core prices to have edged higher on a monthly basis in December, ''closing out the year on a relatively stronger footing,'' they said.

''Indeed, we forecast a firm 0.3% MoM increase, as services inflation likely gained momentum. In terms of the headline, we expect CPI inflation to register a slight decline on an unrounded basis in December, but rounded up to flat MoM, as energy prices offered large relief again. Our MoM projections imply that headline and core CPI inflation likely lost speed on a YoY basis in December.''

As for the US Dollar, the analysts said ''Unless the core measure significantly surprises to the upside, USD rallies should be sold into. We think the bar is high to compel a reversal of fortune despite the USD tactically stretched.''

USD/JPY technical analysis

As per the prior analysis, USD/JPY Price Analysis: Consolidation into US CPI, bulls on the prowl, the price is coiled and an inverse daily head and shoulders could be in the making:

Such an outcome would take out the daily resistance and tie in with the bullish outlook for DXY as follows, where an M-formation is in play: 

The M-formation is a reversion pattern and the price would be expected to move in for the restest of the resistance structures and neckline of the pattern between 103.50 and 104.00. Such a move would align with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and a 50% mean reversion at the extreme.

Author

Ross J Burland

Ross J Burland, born in England, UK, is a sportsman at heart. He played Rugby and Judo for his county, Kent and the South East of England Rugby team.

More from Ross J Burland
Share:

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD eyes nine-day EMA barrier after rebounding from 1.1600

EUR/USD gains ground after registering modest losses in the previous session, trading around 1.1620 during the Asian hours on Friday. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests an ongoing bearish bias as the pair remains within the descending channel pattern.

GBP/USD drifts lower heading into NFP range

GBP/USD edged lower by 0.2% on Thursday, settling close to 1.3350 in a strained trading session that kept the pair pinned near three-month lows. Price briefly recovered earlier in the day on reports that Iran had indirectly signaled openness to talks with the CIA, but the bounce faded as Israeli officials reportedly advised Washington to disregard the overture. 

Gold recovers above $5,100 ahead of US NFP report

Gold price jumps back above $5,100 in the Asian session on Friday. The precious metal regains traction, helped by a fresh bout of US Dollar selling and persisting risk-off flows. The US employment report for February will take center stage later on Friday. 

Ethereum pull in $169M as validators pile in to stake ETH

US spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds recorded $169 million in net inflows on Wednesday, marking the largest daily intake in two months, according to SoSoValue data. The rise in inflows signals renewed institutional interest in Ethereum amid broader market volatility.

The market compass is pointing at a barrel of Oil

The Asian open is arriving with equities leaning the wrong way, and the reason is not complicated. The market’s compass needle has snapped firmly toward crude. In this tape, oil is not just another input price; it is the gravitational center around which every asset class is orbiting.

Ripple tests recovery strength amid steady ETF inflows, growing retail interest

Ripple (XRP) continues to demonstrate notable resilience as the cryptocurrency market navigates the persistent war in the Middle East after the United States (US) and Israel attacked Iran on Saturday.