USD/JPY: BoJ in focus tomorrow – OCBC

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Consensus leans towards no move while we stuck to our view for a hike. Typically, BoJ MPC decision can matter for USD/JPY but this time, the USD/JPY may also matter for BoJ given the >3% decline in JPY lately. USD/JPY was last seen at 153.94 levels, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Moving averages compression is observed

“For BoJ MPC (Thu), we are looking for BoJ to carry on with policy normalization with a hike. Recent uptick in base pay supports the view about positive development in labor market, alongside still elevated services inflation, better 3Q GDP and expectations for 5-6% wage increases for 2025. For USD/JPY, it is not just JPY or BoJ in the equation, the Fed and US data also matters.”

“While we are of the view that broader direction of travel for USD/JPY is skewed towards the downside as Fed cuts and BoJ hikes. The risk is a slowdown in pace of respective policy normalisation, especially if Fed guides for a much slower pace of cuts or BoJ shows hesitation. Then the USD/JPY may face intermittent upside risks.”

“Mild bullish momentum intact but RSI eased. Moving averages compression (MAC) observed and this typically precedes a breakout trade. Support at 152.70, 152.10 (21, 100, 200 DMAs) and 150.20 (38.2% fibo). Resistance at 154.80, 155.90 levels.”

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

EUR/USD deflates to fresh lows, targets 1.1600

The selling pressure on EUR/USD now gathers extra pace, prompting the pair to hit fresh multi-week lows in the 1.1625-1.1620 band on Friday. The continuation of the downward bias comes in response to further gains in the US Dollar as market participants continue to assess the mixed release of US Nonfarm Payrolls in December.

GBP/USD breaks below 1.3400, challenges the 200-day SMA

GBP/USD remains under heavy fire and retreats for the fourth consecutive day on Friday. Indeed, Cable suffers the strong performance of the Greenback, intensified post-mixed NFP, and trades at shouting distance from its critical 200-day SMA near 1.3380.

Gold flirts with yearly tops around $4,500

Gold keeps its positive bias on Friday, adding to Thursday’s advance and challenging yearly highs in the $4,500 region per troy ounce. The risk-off sentiment favours the yellow metal despite the firmer tone in the Greenback and rising US Treasury yields.