USD/INR stays near day's low as bleeding Oil price strengthens Indian Rupee
- Indian Rupee surges 0.75% to near 86.10 against the US Dollar as Oil price dives following Israel-Iran truce.
- A significant improvement in investors' risk appetite has battered the US Dollar badly.
- Fed’s Bowman argued in favor of reducing interest rates in the July policy meeting.
The Indian Rupee (INR) surges to near 86.10 against the US Dollar (USD) during European trading hours on Tuesday. The USD/INR pair slumps as the bleeding Oil price follows the announcement of the Israel-Iran ceasefire by United States (US) President Donald Trump through a post on Truth.Social has strengthened the Indian currency.
The Oil price on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) has dived over 15% from its high of $76.74. This scenario is favorable for currencies of nations that have lower Oil reserves and depend significantly on imports to address their needs, such as the Indian Rupee.
Inflation in the Indian economy cools down, and the current account deficit diminishes if Oil prices remain lower.
"The ceasefire is now in effect. Please do not violate it!” Trump wrote. Following the announcement of the Israel-Iran ceasefire by US President Trump, both nations have also agreed to the same. However, Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned that its defence forces will respond forcefully to a breach of the truce.
Lower Oil prices and a sharp increase in investors' risk appetite, following the Iran-Israel ceasefire announcement, fuelled a strong recovery in the Indian equity market. Nifty50 opened 208 points higher to near 25,180, and Sensex30 rallied 0.85% to near 82,600. However, both indices have surrendered half of their early gains after approaching the closing session. Indian equity markets saw a sharp sell-off on Monday after Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz through which almost a quarter of the global Oil is supplied. On Monday, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) bought Rs. 5,591.77 worth of Indian equities.
Indian Rupee PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Indian Rupee (INR) against listed major currencies today. Indian Rupee was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | INR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.15% | -0.57% | -0.74% | -0.13% | -0.71% | -0.76% | -0.34% | |
| EUR | 0.15% | -0.45% | -0.62% | 0.01% | -0.55% | -1.04% | -0.50% | |
| GBP | 0.57% | 0.45% | -0.16% | 0.47% | -0.10% | -0.59% | 0.21% | |
| JPY | 0.74% | 0.62% | 0.16% | 0.62% | -0.00% | -0.05% | 0.07% | |
| CAD | 0.13% | -0.01% | -0.47% | -0.62% | -0.58% | -1.06% | -0.53% | |
| AUD | 0.71% | 0.55% | 0.10% | 0.00% | 0.58% | -0.49% | 0.06% | |
| NZD | 0.76% | 1.04% | 0.59% | 0.05% | 1.06% | 0.49% | 0.72% | |
| INR | 0.34% | 0.50% | -0.21% | -0.07% | 0.53% | -0.06% | -0.72% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Indian Rupee from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent INR (base)/USD (quote).
Daily digest market movers: US Dollar slumps as Fed supports interest rate cuts in July
- The sharp downside move in the USD/INR pair is also driven by weakness in the US Dollar due to multiple headwinds: improving risk profile and a shift in Federal Reserve (Fed) officials’ stance on the monetary policy outlook.
- A sharp increase in the risk appetite of investors, following the Israel-Iran truce, has diminished the appeal of the US Dollar, which gained sharply on Monday. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, tumbles to near 98.10 during Asian trading hours on Tuesday from a fresh two-week high around 99.40 posted the previous day.
- On the domestic front, recent commentaries from a few Fed officials have signaled growing concerns over the labor market and increasing confidence that the impact of tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump on inflation will be limited. A scenario that bolsters hopes for an interest rate cut in the near term.
- On Monday, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman showed openness to reducing interest rates in the July meeting, citing downside risks to employment and confidence that the trade policy is only likely to have ‘minimal impacts’ on inflation. “It is time to consider adjusting the policy rate,” Bowman said and added, “We should put more weight on downside risks to the job market going forward.”
- Last week, Fed Governor Christopher Waller also argued in favor of cutting interest rates in July, citing concerns over the labor market. "The Fed should not wait for the job market to crash in order to cut rates," Waller said.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR sees more downside below 86.00
The USD/INR pair tumbled at open to near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 86.10, suggesting that the near-term trend has become uncertain.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) slides vertically to near 50.00 after remaining above 60.00 in the past few trading days, indicating a strong bearish reversal.
Looking down, the June 12 high at 85.70 will act as key support for the major. On the upside, the June 19 high of 86.93 will be a critical hurdle for the pair.
Economic Indicator
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)
The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on a monthly basis, measures the changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers in the United States (US). The PCE Price Index is also the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred gauge of inflation. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. The core reading excludes the so-called more volatile food and energy components to give a more accurate measurement of price pressures." Generally, a high reading is bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is bearish.
Read more.Next release: Fri Jun 27, 2025 12:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 2.6%
Previous: 2.5%
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
After publishing the GDP report, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data alongside the monthly changes in Personal Spending and Personal Income. FOMC policymakers use the annual Core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, as their primary gauge of inflation. A stronger-than-expected reading could help the USD outperform its rivals as it would hint at a possible hawkish shift in the Fed’s forward guidance and vice versa.
Author
Sagar Dua
FXStreet
Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.
