- The Indian Rupee may face challenges amid renewed USD demand from importers and persistent foreign fund outflows.
- USD/INR may face headwinds as the US Dollar comes under pressure following Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating.
- The INR finds some support from falling crude oil prices, driven by reports of progress in US-Iran nuclear talks.
The Indian Rupee (INR) gains ground against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, with the USD/INR pair halting its five-day winning streak. However, fresh USD demand from importers and ongoing foreign fund outflows continue to weigh on the INR.
The USD/INR pair also struggles as the US Dollar (USD) came under renewed pressure following Moody’s Investors Service downgrade of the US credit rating by one notch, citing rising debt levels and mounting interest payment obligations.
The INR receives support from a decline in crude oil prices, amid reports of progress in US-Iran nuclear negotiations, which could help cushion the Rupee's downside. Iran’s president reaffirmed his country's commitment to continue talks with the US while standing firm on its nuclear rights. Given that India is the world’s third-largest oil consumer, lower oil prices generally support the Rupee by easing the country’s import bill.
Indian Rupee appreciates as US Dollar weakens
- The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, is trading lower at around 100.60 at the time of writing. The US Dollar faces challenges as Moody’s Ratings has downgraded the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, aligning with previous downgrades by Fitch Ratings in 2023 and Standard & Poor’s in 2011.
- Moody’s now forecasts US federal debt to rise to approximately 134% of GDP by 2035, up from 98% in 2023. The federal deficit is projected to widen to nearly 9% of GDP, fueled by mounting debt-servicing costs, increased entitlement spending, and declining tax revenues.
- A series of weak US economic indicators has reinforced expectations of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this year. Notably, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell sharply to 50.8 in May from 52.2 in April, the lowest level since June 2022 and the fifth consecutive monthly decline. Analysts had forecast a rise to 53.4.
- The US Dollar may find some support from easing global trade tensions. A preliminary trade deal between the US and China proposes significant tariff reductions—Washington is set to lower duties on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while Beijing will cut tariffs on US imports from 125% to 10%.
- Market sentiment is also lifted by renewed optimism over a potential US-Iran nuclear deal and upcoming talks between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin aimed at de-escalating the Ukraine conflict.
- India's BSE Sensex rose 3.6% last week, rebounding from the previous week’s decline. The rally was fueled by easing geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan, growing optimism around India–US trade ties, and expectations of domestic interest rate cuts.
- Meanwhile, a high-level Indian delegation led by Minister of Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal is set to meet with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick during his visit, which continues through May 20. Goyal is expected to push forward discussions on a proposed India–US bilateral trade agreement.
USD/INR hovers around 85.50 amid a mixed-to-bullish bias
The Indian Rupee continues its losing streak for the sixth consecutive day, with the USD/INR pair trading near 85.60 on Monday. Technical indicators on the daily chart maintain a bullish bias, as the pair moves upwards within an ascending channel pattern. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above the 50 level, suggesting a persistent bullish sentiment.
The USD/INR pair could target its monthly high of 85.90, reached on May 9. A break above this level could allow the pair to explore the region around the upper boundary of the ascending channel at 86.40.
Immediate support lies at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 85.30, followed by the ascending channel’s lower boundary at 85.10. A decisive break below this zone could undermine short-term bullish attempts and open the door for a decline toward its eight-month low of 83.76.
Indian Rupee FAQs
The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference.
Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee.
Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
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