• USD/INR drops below 70 for the first time since early January. 
  • Technical selling, fading border tensions likely pushing the pair lower. 

USD/INR is currently trading at 69.97, the lowest level since Jan. 8, having hit a high of 70.11 earlier today. Technical selling and fading Indo-Pak tensions continue to bode well for the Indian rupee for the third straight day. 

The currency pair dived out of the narrowing price range on Feb. 28 and breached the 200-day moving average (MA) support earlier this week. The breakdown was backed by the 14-day RSI's move below 50.00 and the downward sloping 5- and 10-day MAs. 

Notably, the MAs are still trending south and the bearish momentum is gathering pace, according to the moving average convergence divergence indicator. 

Possibly adding to the bullish tone around the rupee are softening oil prices and sustained flow of foreign institutional money into Indian markets. 

USD/INR, therefore, could continue to feel the pull of gravity, albeit after a minor bounce as the indicators on both the hourly and 4-hour charts are now reporting oversold conditions. The overall bearish setup would be invalidated if the bounce ends up clearing the descending 10-day MA. 

Technical Levels

Support: 69.57 (Nov. 30 low), 69.23 (Jan. 7 low)

Resistance: 70.4050 (Feb. 13 low), 70.67 (200-day MA)


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