- USD/INR struggles to overcome monthly low amid mixed catalysts.
- Indian government eyes 1.0 trillion rupees pandemic pool as covid figures refresh record top above 400K.
- IMF hints recalculation of Indian growth forecasts due to covid.
- US employment data becomes the key, covid updates, vaccine news are important too.
USD/INR takes the bids near 73.67, up 0.07% on a day, during early Indian trading on Friday. The Indian rupee pair dropped to the lowest since April 07 before a few hours as risk-on mood exerts downside pressure on the quote. However, the worsening coronavirus (COVID-19) conditions in India keep buyers hopeful of a corrective pullback from the key support.
India’s covid infections refresh record top above 400K with the latest print of 414,188 cases taking total to 21.49 million on Friday, per Reuters. Further, the virus-led death toll jumped by 3,915 to 234,083 the report stated.
The widespread jump in the covid cases in India, unfortunately leading the global tally, pushes the International Monetary Fund (IMF) towards revisiting their upbeat growth forecast for the Asian nation. On Thursday, IMF spokesman Gerry Rice said, per Reuters, “The recent jump in COVID-19 cases in India posed downside risks to the Fund's April forecast for 12.5% growth in India's economic output in fiscal years 2021 and 2022.”
It’s worth mentioning that the Indian government is up for easing strings of their pocket while signaling a one trillion rupee pandemic pool. However, the opposition keeps criticizing the ruling Bhartiya Janata Party’s (BJP) efforts and the same could be witnessed in the latest local elections.
Even so, hopes of faster vaccinations, backed by western help, as well as a rejection to the reflation fears, favor the risk-on mood. Though, the typical pre-NFP trading lull limits the USD/INR moves.
Read: US April Nonfarm Payrolls Preview: Leading indicators point to another strong NFP
Technical analysis
Not only the confluence of 200-day and 50-day SMAs but the late March tops also highlight 73.65-60 as the key support for USD/INR traders to watch.
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