USD/INR jumps as heavy US Dollar demand drags Indian Rupee to near all-time low


  • The Indian Rupee weakens in Wednesday’s Asian session.
  • The renewed USD demand undermines the INR, but RBI intervention might cap its downside. 
  • The US Core PCE inflation data will be closely watched.

The Indian Rupee (INR) extends its decline on Wednesday. The demand for the US Dollar (USD) and global uncertainties weigh on the local currency. Additionally, the cautious stance of the Federal Reserve (Fed) could underpin the USD in the near term.

Nonetheless, the foreign inflows related to the rejig of MSCI's global equity indexes might help limit the INR’s losses. The downside of the Indian Rupee might be capped as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) might intervene in the foreign exchange market to prevent the INR from depreciating. The US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (Core PCE) - Price Index for October will be the highlight on Wednesday. Also, the weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Pending Home Sales, the Chicago PMI and Durable Goods Orders will be published. 

Indian Rupee remains weak despite MSCI Index rebalancing

  • The MSCI index rebalancing significantly boosted the Indian stock market, drawing in foreign investors who fueled over $1 billion in net purchases.
  • A major portion of the Indian economy is witnessing an upward trend despite fluctuations, according to HSBC Global Research.
  • Donald Trump said early Tuesday that he would announce a 25% tariff on all products from Mexico and Canada from his first day in office and impose an extra 10% tariff on goods from China.
  • Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) latest meeting indicated that the policymakers are taking a cautious approach to cutting interest rates as inflation is easing and the labor market remains strong.  
  • Financial markets are now pricing in nearly 57.7% possibility that the Fed will cut rates by a quarter point, down from around 69.5% a month ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. 

USD/INR holds a bullish undertone

The Indian Rupee trades weaker on the day. The USD/INR pair keeps the bullish vibe within an ascending trend channel on the daily chart, with the price holding above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The upward momentum is supported by the 14-day Relative Strength Index, which is located above the midline near 55.30, suggesting further upside looks favorable. 

The crucial resistance level emerges in the 84.50-84.55 zone, representing the all-time high and the upper boundary of the trend channel. Sustained bullish momentum above this level could see a rally to the 85.00 psychological mark. 

On the other hand, the lower limit of the trend channel of 84.24 acts as an initial support level for USD/INR. The next contention level is seen at 83.94, the 100-day EMA. The additional downside filter to watch is 83.65, the low of August 1. 

Indian Rupee FAQs

The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference.

Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee.

Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

 

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD hits two-week tops near 1.0500 on poor US Retail Sales

EUR/USD hits two-week tops near 1.0500 on poor US Retail Sales

The selling pressure continues to hurt the US Dollar and now encourages EUR/USD to advance to new two-week peaks in levels just shy of the 1.0500 barrier in the wake of disappointing results from US Retail Sales.

EUR/USD News
GBP/USD surpasses 1.2600 on weaker US Dollar

GBP/USD surpasses 1.2600 on weaker US Dollar

GBP/USD extends its march north and reclaims the 1.2600 hurdle for the first time since December on the back of the increasing downward bias in the Greenback, particularly exacerbated following disheartening US results.

GBP/USD News
Gold maintains the bid tone near $2,940

Gold maintains the bid tone near $2,940

The continuation of the offered stance in the Greenback coupled with declining US yields across the board underpin the extra rebound in Gold prices, which trade at shouting distance from their record highs.

Gold News
Weekly wrap: XRP, Solana and Dogecoin lead altcoin gains on Friday

Weekly wrap: XRP, Solana and Dogecoin lead altcoin gains on Friday

XRP, Solana (SOL) and Dogecoin (DOGE) gained 5.91%, 2.88% and 3.36% respectively on Friday. While Bitcoin (BTC) hovers around the $97,000 level, the three altcoins pave the way for recovery and rally in altcoins ranking within the top 50 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization on CoinGecko. 

Read more
Tariffs likely to impart a modest stagflationary hit to the economy this year

Tariffs likely to impart a modest stagflationary hit to the economy this year

The economic policies of the Trump administration are starting to take shape. President Trump has already announced the imposition of tariffs on some of America's trading partners, and we assume there will be more levies, which will be matched by foreign retaliation, in the coming quarters.

Read more
The Best Brokers of the Year

The Best Brokers of the Year

SPONSORED Explore top-quality choices worldwide and locally. Compare key features like spreads, leverage, and platforms. Find the right broker for your needs, whether trading CFDs, Forex pairs like EUR/USD, or commodities like Gold.

Read More

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures

Best Brokers of 2025