- USD/IDR struggles for a clear direction around two-week top.
- Indonesia April Trade Balance $+2.19 billion, Exports, Imports also came in stronger.
- Indonesian Finance Minister proposes 2022 budget parliament.
- Reuters poll suggesting investors are marginally bullish over IDR.
USD/IDR wobbles around 14,385, down 0.05% intraday, after multiple catalysts from Indonesia troubled the pair traders during early Thursday. Among them, April trade numbers and budget release gained major attention but risk-off mood tests the pair buyers.
Indonesia’s Trade Balance jumped from the $1.0 billion forecasts and $1.56 billion prior in April. On the same line, Exports and Imports also crossed 41% and 29.81% respective expected figures with 51.94% and 29.93% growth in that order.
Elsewhere, Indonesia Finance Minister (FM) Sri Mulyani Indrawati proposes the 2022 budget to be based on the average Indonesia rupiah (IDR) level of around $13,900 and $15,000. The diplomat also targets 2022 Inflation at 2% to 4% while expecting a GDP of 5.2% to 5.8% during the stated period.
It’s worth mentioning that FM Indrawati assumes a 10-year bond yield at 6.32%-7.27% for 2022 versus the current level of 6.529%, the highest since April 28.
Additionally, Reuters' poll mentions, “Markets turned cautiously bullish on the Indonesian rupiah for the first time since late February.”
On a broader scale, the return of tapering chatters, backed by the latest FOMC minutes, battle the covid woes in Asia and vaccine hopes in the West to trouble market plays. Against this backdrop, S&P 500 Futures print mild losses whereas the US 10-year Treasury yield drops two basis points (bps) to 1.66% by the press time.
Looking forward, US weekly jobless claims and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey for May could direct short-term USD/IDR moves. However, major attention will be given to the Fed’s next moves and any signals related to that.
Technical analysis
A daily closing beyond the five-week-old falling trend line, near $14,420, becomes necessary for USD/IDR bulls to retake controls.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD clings to daily gains above 1.0650
EUR/USD gained traction and turned positive on the day above 1.0650. The improvement seen in risk mood following the earlier flight to safety weighs on the US Dollar ahead of the weekend and helps the pair push higher.
GBP/USD recovers toward 1.2450 after UK Retail Sales data
GBP/USD reversed its direction and advanced to the 1.2450 area after touching a fresh multi-month low below 1.2400 in the Asian session. The positive shift seen in risk mood on easing fears over a deepening Iran-Israel conflict supports the pair.
Gold holds steady at around $2,380 following earlier spike
Gold stabilized near $2,380 after spiking above $2,400 with the immediate reaction to reports of Israel striking Iran. Meanwhile, the pullback seen in the US Treasury bond yields helps XAU/USD hold its ground.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC post-halving rally could be partially priced in Premium
Bitcoin price shows no signs of directional bias while it holds above $60,000. The fourth BTC halving is partially priced in, according to Deutsche Bank’s research.
Week ahead – US GDP and BoJ decision on top of next week’s agenda
US GDP, core PCE and PMIs the next tests for the Dollar. Investors await BoJ for guidance about next rate hike. EU and UK PMIs, as well as Australian CPIs also on tap.