- USD/IDR struggles for clear direction for the second consecutive day.
- Indonesia Exports, Trade Balance for December dropped below market consensus, prior.
- Risk-on in Asia-Pacific battles virus woes, Fed rate hike concerns.
USD/IDR consolidates intraday losses around $14,325 during early Monday. The pair’s recent gains could be linked to the mixed trade numbers from Indonesia.
Indonesia’s headline Trade Balance eased to $1.02B versus $3.13B market consensus and $3.51B prior. Further, Exports eased to 35.3% growth compared to 40.4% forecast and 49.7% previous readouts but Imports rallied by 47.93% from 52.62% prior and 39.4% expected for December.
In addition to the mixed data, concerns surrounding coronavirus and Fed rate hikes also weigh on the Indonesia rupiah (IDR).
Although an off in the US banks limit Treasury bond moves, Friday’s comments from Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly and New York Fed President John Williams pushed faster rate hikes by the Fed and weighed on the risk appetite.
Elsewhere, China’s Beijing tightens the rule for entry into the capital city after a jump in the covid cases while Japan also discusses heightened virus-led restrictions for Tokyo on witnessing more than 20,000 daily infections for the third consecutive day.
It should be noted, however, that the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) 1-year Medium-Term Lending Facility (MLF) rate cut by 10 basis points (bps) to 2.85% joins hopes of faster recovery and upbeat Q4 China GDP to challenges IDR bears.
Moving on, risk catalysts will be the key for the near-term direction but an off in the US banks may restrict the market moves.
USD/IDR seesaws between the 100-DMA and 200-DMA, respectively around $14,270 and $14,345, amid sluggish oscillators keeping sellers hopeful.
Additional important levels
|Today last price||14319|
|Today Daily Change||1.4500|
|Today Daily Change %||0.01%|
|Today daily open||14317.55|
|Previous Daily High||14329.85|
|Previous Daily Low||14283|
|Previous Weekly High||14369|
|Previous Weekly Low||14269|
|Previous Monthly High||14538|
|Previous Monthly Low||14140|
|Daily Fibonacci 38.2%||14300.8967|
|Daily Fibonacci 61.8%||14311.9533|
|Daily Pivot Point S1||14290.4167|
|Daily Pivot Point S2||14263.2833|
|Daily Pivot Point S3||14243.5667|
|Daily Pivot Point R1||14337.2667|
|Daily Pivot Point R2||14356.9833|
|Daily Pivot Point R3||14384.1167|
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