USD/IDR pares gains below $15,400 on Bank Indonesia’s status-quo

Bank Indonesia (BI), the Indonesian central bank, announced no changes to its benchmark interest rate at its March policy meeting, leaving it at 5.75%.

Summary of the statement

Global economic growth seen better than previously anticipated at 2.6% in 2023.

US, Europe growth seen better than previously predicted, recession risks lower.

Monetary tightening by advanced economies and US bank collapse have increased market uncertainty.

This has reduced capital inflows to emerging countries.

To strengthen Rupiah stability to mitigate spillover impact from us bank closures on domestic financial markets, exchange rate.

Keeps 2023 GDP growth outlook bias towards upper end of +4.5% to +5.3%.

Q1 current account seen on a surplus, supported by large merchandise trade surplus.

Keeps 2023 c/a balance estimate at 0.4% deficit to 0.4% surplus of GDP.

Rupiah's YTD appreciation is better than some other Asian currencies.

Rupiah stability will be maintained in line with indonesia's economic prospects.

Core inflation seen staying within target in 2023.

Headline inflation seen returning to within 2%-4% target range from September 2023.

Banking liquidity adequate to support lending growth.

Stress test shows domestic banks are resilient

Indonesian banks has low NPF, high capital ratio, which support banking industry so that it will not be affected by closure of US banks.

Interest rate decision remains consistent with stance to ensure inflation expectations ease.

Bank Indonesia believes benchmark rate sufficient to ensure headline inflation returns to target range.

Market reaction

USD/IDR is paring back gains below 15,400 on the BI no-rate change announcement. The pair is trading at 15,380, up 0.13% on the day.