USD: Decline and inflation dynamics – UBS

The UBS Weekly Blog by Paul Donovan discusses the rapid decline of the US Dollar this year. It highlights that while a weaker currency typically correlates with higher inflation, modern trading behaviors have diminished this narrative. The report emphasizes that the Dollar's decline may be less impactful on the US affordability crisis compared to tariffs, and any inflationary effects are likely to be gradual due to existing contracts.

Impact of Dollar weakness on inflation

"Traditionally, a weaker currency is associated with higher inflation. Modern trading behavior has weakened that narrative, however."

"The dollar’s decline is likely to be less relevant to the US affordability crisis than were tariffs."

"The result is that while dollar weakness might have some effect on US inflation (mainly via commodity prices), the impact is less severe than with tariffs."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)