USD/CNH: USD must break and hold below 7.0860 for further downside – UOB Group

Slight uptick in upward momentum is likely to lead US Dollar (USD) trading in a higher range of 7.0930/7.1130. In the longer run, USD must break and hold below 7.0860 before further downside is likely, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Slight uptick in upward momentum

24-HOUR VIEW: "After USD fell sharply two days ago, we highlighted the following yesterday: 'The sharp and swift decline appears to be overdone, but with no sign of stabilisation just yet, USD could drop to 7.0980 before stabilisation is likely. A sustained drop below 7.0980 appears unlikely, and 7.0875 is also unlikely to come into view.' The anticipated decline exceeded our expectation, as USD broke below both 7.0980 and 7.0875, reaching a low of 7.0860. However, the decline was brief, as USD rebounded sharply to close largely unchanged at 7.1020 (-0.02%). Downward pressure has faded, and there has been a slight uptick in upward momentum. However, this is likely to lead to USD trading in a higher range of 7.0930/7.1130 rather than a sustained advance."

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We have held a negative USD stance since early last week (see annotations in chart below). Yesterday (17 Sep, spot at 7.1050), we indicated that 'the rapid increase in momentum suggests that a break of 7.1000 would not be surprising.' We added, 'the next level to monitor is 7.0875.' We did not expect how the price movements developed, as USD dropped to a low of 7.0860 and then rebounded strongly. While USD could still weaken, the rebound from 7.0860 suggests that this level is acting as a pivotal support — a kind of ‘reverse highwater mark’ — and only a break and close below it would indicate that further downside is likely. The likelihood of USD breaking clearly below 7.0860 will remain intact as long as 7.1220 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level) is not breached."