USD/CNH: Trump 2.0 tariff regime can be worse than Trump 1.0 one – ING

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Turning to China, the extra 10% tariff next Tuesday is an aggressive surprise and follows a 10% across-the-board increase in tariffs on 4 February, ING’s FX analysts Chris Turner notes.

Weaker CNH to keep the EMFX complex on the backfoot.

"If it goes through, the new tariff regime could potentially be worse than anything seen under Trump 1.0. There is clearly a powerplay at work here, where President Trump speaks to a joint session of Congress on Tuesday, the day before Chinese Premier Li delivers the Government Work Report at the Two Sessions gathering."

"These tariffs look more ideological than transactional and could potentially trigger a sharper response from Beijing. It is not our baseline view, but speculation may resurface that China will allow a weaker currency after all."

"Expect more attention on USD/CNH now and we have seen the three-month risk reversal - the price of a USD/CNH call option over an equivalent USD/CNH put option - rise back towards early February highs. The threat of a weaker renminbi can keep the majority of the EMFX complex on the backfoot."

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

EUR/USD deflates to fresh lows, targets 1.1600

The selling pressure on EUR/USD now gathers extra pace, prompting the pair to hit fresh multi-week lows in the 1.1625-1.1620 band on Friday. The continuation of the downward bias comes in response to further gains in the US Dollar as market participants continue to assess the mixed release of US Nonfarm Payrolls in December.

GBP/USD breaks below 1.3400, challenges the 200-day SMA

GBP/USD remains under heavy fire and retreats for the fourth consecutive day on Friday. Indeed, Cable suffers the strong performance of the Greenback, intensified post-mixed NFP, and trades at shouting distance from its critical 200-day SMA near 1.3380.

Gold flirts with yearly tops around $4,500

Gold keeps its positive bias on Friday, adding to Thursday’s advance and challenging yearly highs in the $4,500 region per troy ounce. The risk-off sentiment favours the yellow metal despite the firmer tone in the Greenback and rising US Treasury yields.