|

USD/CNH: Measured pace – OCBC

USD/CNH continued to trade lower in subdued ranges near its recent lows. USD/CNH last at 7.1560 levels. Daily momentum is showing tentative signs of turning mild bearish but decline in RSI shows signs of moderation, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Daily momentum is showing signs of turning mild bearish

"Support at 7.15, 7.1460 (61.8% fibo retracement of 2024 low to 2025 high). Resistance at 7.1820 (21 DMA). Consistent trend of CNY fix being set stronger (than previous day), relatively upbeat Caixin PMI manufacturing, confirmation of trade deal framework between US and China as well as a softer USD environment should continue to point to a more constructive outlook for RMB."

"But at the same time, we believe policymakers will continue to pursue setting the USD/CNY fix at a 'measured pace' to also help anchor relative stability in RMB overall. Any sharp or rapid RMB appreciation may risk triggering exporters rushing to sell USD holdings and that cycle (if it happens) may result in excessive RMB volatility and strength."

"This may hurt exporters’ margins and have wider repercussion on deflation. A more gradual pace of appreciation could repair investor sentiments and encourage a return of foreign inflows."

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

More from FXStreet Insights Team
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD tests nine-day EMA support near 1.1750

EUR/USD loses ground for the fourth consecutive session, trading around 1.1760 during the Asian hours on Monday. On the daily chart, technical analysis indicates a weakening bullish bias, as the pair tests to break below the lower boundary of the ascending channel pattern.

GBP/USD softens below 1.3500 but retains positive technical outlook

The GBP/USD pair loses momentum near 1.3485 during the early European session on Monday, pressured by renewed US Dollar demand. The potential downside for a major pair might be limited, as the Bank of England guided that monetary policy will remain on a gradual downward path.

Gold pulls back from record high as profit-taking sets in

Gold price retreats from a record high near $4,550 during the early European trading hours on Monday as traders book some profits ahead of holidays. A renewed US Dollar could also weigh on the precious metal, as it makes Gold more expensive for non-US buyers, pressuring prices.

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP bulls regain strength

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple record roughly 3% gains on Monday, regaining strength mid-holiday season. Despite thin liquidity in the holiday season, BTC and major altcoins are regaining strength as US President Donald Trump pushes peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. The technical outlook for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple gradually shifts bullish as selling pressure wanes.

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Avalanche struggles near $12 as Grayscale files updated form for ETF

Avalanche trades close to $12 by press time on Wednesday, extending the nearly 2% drop from the previous day. Grayscale filed an updated form to convert its Avalanche-focused Trust into an ETF with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.