USD/CNH: Lower fix again – OCBC

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

USD/CNY fix was set lower at 7.0949 and below 7.10 for a 3rd consecutive session. USD/CNH last seen at 7.1280 levels, largely in line with yesterday spot despite the USD/CNY fix going lower, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Risks somewhat skewed to the downside

"This demonstrated policymakers’ intent to guide RMB on an appreciation path, albeit at a measured pace. There were also market chatters of explicit strengthening in the RMB ahead of the 4th plenum scheduled to be held in Beijing 20 – 23 Oct. The Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will convene and focus on outlining CCP’s next 5-year plan from 2026-2030. Earlier in April, President Xi outlined 5 key areas including national economic development, security, innovation, education & talent for development of new quality productive forces and the improvement of people’s livelihoods."

"A communiqué is expected to be published on 23rd October, followed by the publication of the proposal of the 5-year plan a week later. CEWC will work on key policy targets in mid-Dec before the NPC meeting in March 2026. With US-China tensions still heightened over rare earth export controls and Trump’s 100% tariff threat in response, the strong CNY fix only served as restraining the CNY from weakening, for now."

"An improvement in market sentiments may still be required for spot to be aligned with the fix, from a directional perspective. Bullish momentum on daily chart is fading while RSI fell. Risks somewhat skewed to the downside. Support at 7.1150, and 7.08 (76.4% fibo retracement of 2024 low to 2025 high). Resistance at 7.1330 (21 DMA), 7.1420/60 levels (50 DMA, 61.8% fibo)."

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

GBP/USD: Downward-sloping trendline near 1.3470 remains key barrier

The British pound faces selling pressure against its major currency peers, trading 0.1% lower at around 1.3420 against the US Dollar during the European trading session on Tuesday.

Euro clings to the bid bias above 1.1500

EUR/USD has picked up pace, reversing Monday’s decline and advancing past the 1.1500 barrier on Tuesday. In the meantime, hopes for a diplomatic solution to the Middle East crisis keep the US Dollar under modest downside pressure, helping spot in its recovery.

Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index extends historical negative streak as risk appetite deteriorates

The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index extends its negative streak to 78 consecutive days on Tuesday, the longest on record. This reading comes amid the ongoing bearish trend, which has seen Bitcoin (BTC) drop by almost 50% from its record high to trade around $64,000.

Why the WTI sell-off may be hiding a supply warning

Prices for the barrel of the American Oil benchmark have fallen sharply as hopes of a US-Iran agreement have resurfaced, but a deeply backwardated Oil curve, tight Cushing stocks and light speculative positioning all warn that the sell-off may have gone too far.

9-3: Is the Federal Reserve’s vote tally Warsh's new forward guidance?

The rate did not move. Neither did the statement, and that’s the more interesting fact. Set the July 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement beside the one issued on June 17, and the two documents are identical apart from a single verb and a paragraph at the bottom naming three dissenters.