|

USD/CNH clings to the consolidative theme so far – UOB

In the view of Economist Lee Sue Ann and Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang at UOB Group, USD/CNH is expected to stick to the current range bound theme between 6.8500 and 6.9200 for the time being.

Key Quotes

24-hour view: “We expected USD to trade with a downward bias last Friday but we held the view that ‘a clear break below 6.8500 is unlikely’. We did not expect the volatile price actions as USD plunged to 6.8303 and snapped back up to end the day little changed at 6.8696 (-0.01%). USD traded on a firm note in early Asian trade and upward momentum is building. That said, any advance is expected to face solid resistance at 6.9000. Support is at 6.8700, followed by 6.8600.”

Next 1-3 weeks: “Last Friday (14 Apr, spot at 6.8700), we noted that ‘downward momentum is showing tentative signs of building’. However, we indicated that USD ‘has to break clearly below 6.8500 before a sustained decline is likely’. While USD took out 6.8500 and plunged to 6.8303, the decline was short-lived as it soared to a high of 6.8760 in NY trade before extending its gains in Asian trade. The price actions suggest there is no clear USD direction and for the time being, it could trade in a relatively broad range of 6.8500/6.9250.”

Author

Pablo Piovano

Born and bred in Argentina, Pablo has been carrying on with his passion for FX markets and trading since his first college years.

More from Pablo Piovano
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD flirts with 0.7000, lowest since early August amid bullish USD

AUD/USD hits a fresh low since early August during the Asian session on Friday and looks vulnerable near 0.7000 after breaking below the 200-day SMA overnight. Against the backdrop of the hawkish Fed, a two-day rally in oil prices revives inflation fears and continues to push US bond yields to multi-year highs. Adding to this, geopolitical risks lift the US Dollar to a two-month high, overshadowing RBA rate hike bets and weighing on the pair.

USD/JPY pulls back from three-week high after failing near 159.00

USD/JPY edges lower during the Asian session on Friday, stalling its recent strong move to a three-week high of 159.00 as Japanese Yen bears turn cautious amid intervention fears. Meanwhile, the US Dollar retains a strong bullish undertone as the Fed's hawkish outlook and oil-driven inflation fears continue to push US bond yields to multi-year peaks. Furthermore, the BoJ's dovish rate hike last week might cap JPY and support spot prices.

Gold treads water below $4,300

Gold grabs some buying attention and advances marginally at the end of the week, partially retracing the weekly decline, although it is still navigating below the key $4,300 mark per troy ounce. The fresh selling bias on the Greenback and the modest decline in US Treasury yields appear to support the humble advance in the precious metal.

Week ahead: Rate hike bets face a crucial data week
Despite the solid drop from the mid-September high, oil prices remained in the driver’s seat for another week, setting the tone in financial markets. Six months have passed since the late-February start of the US-Iran conflict, and there is still no breakthrough in the stalled talks, despite pressure from regional leaders and the rest of the world.
CFTC Report: Defensive currency positioning takes hold
The week in one sentence: Sterling and Euro shorts deepened in the week to September 22, while Yen longs were cut sharply. Oil positioning improved despite a steep price decline, and Gold exposure remained crowded. The main signal was a more defensive currency positioning backdrop.
Fed vs BoJ: Both hiked. The market only believes one of them – and the chart shows which

The Fed and the BoJ have just done something remarkably similar. Both central banks raised interest rates by 25 bps last week, both are confronting inflation risks, and both signal that future decisions will depend on incoming economic data.