USD/CNH: A clear break below 7.1700 is unlikely – UOB Group

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

There is a chance for US Dollar (USD) to test 7.1700; a clear break below this level is unlikely. In the longer run, downward momentum is building; for a continued decline, USD must first close below 7.1700, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Downward momentum is building

24-HOUR VIEW: "In the early Asian session yesterday, we detected 'a slight increase in downward momentum.' We expected USD to 'edge lower to 7.1780,' but we pointed out that 'given the mild downward pressure, any further decline is unlikely to threaten the support at 7.1700.' We were not wrong, as USD fell to a low of 7.1758. Although there has been no significant increase in downward momentum, there is a chance for USD to test 7.1700 today. Based on the current momentum, a clear break below this level is unlikely. Resistance levels are at 7.1850 and 7.1900."

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "In our update from Monday (11 Aug, spot at 7.1880), we highlighted that 'while we continue to expect range trading, a narrower range of 7.1700/7.2100 is likely enough to contain the price movements for now.' Yesterday, USD dropped to a low of 7.1758. Downward momentum is building, but for a continued decline, USD must first close below 7.1700. The probability of USD closing below 7.1700 will increase from here as long as 7.1950 (‘strong resistance’ level) holds. Looking ahead, if USD closes below 7.1700, the next level to watch is 7.1580."

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

GBP/USD: Downward-sloping trendline near 1.3470 remains key barrier

The British pound faces selling pressure against its major currency peers, trading 0.1% lower at around 1.3420 against the US Dollar during the European trading session on Tuesday.

EUR/USD flatlines above 1.1500, awaits US jobs data

EUR/USD holds steady around 1.1505 in European trading hours on Tuesday. Markets remain cautious ahead of a slew of US jobs data, starting with the JOLTS Job Openings Survey later today. However, the downside appears capped by hot Eurozone inflation in July, bolstering the case for a European Central Bank rate hike at the next meeting.

Gold holds steady above $4,050; hawkish Fed bets favor bearish traders

Gold remains confined in a range below the $4,100 mark through the early European session as traders opt to wait for further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis. Meanwhile, the uncertainty over US-Iran peace talks continues to act as a tailwind for the safe-haven US Dollar.

Aave: Bearish RSI divergence risks a 20% drop despite steady DeFi deposits

Aave (AAVE) extends a mild near-term recovery on Tuesday, holding above its 50-day Exponential Moving Average at $90.80. Aave protocol’s V3 deployment on Monad blockchain recorded over $500 million in deposits over the last month, reflecting increased user adoption.

US JOLTs report in focus

In the US, the June JOLTs report will be in the spotlight. Job openings have increased modestly this year, which has historically predicted rising wage cost pressures ahead. June trade balance data will also be released in the afternoon and the preliminary reading pointed towards a stable trade deficit from May. The Fed's Schmid (non-voter, hawk) will be on the wires overnight.

9-3: Is the Federal Reserve’s vote tally Warsh's new forward guidance?

The rate did not move. Neither did the statement, and that’s the more interesting fact. Set the July 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement beside the one issued on June 17, and the two documents are identical apart from a single verb and a paragraph at the bottom naming three dissenters.