USD/CHF surges towards 0.9900 on risk-aversion as buyers eye a parity test

As investors expect an aggressive US Fed, USD/CHF rallies 0.80% post US hot inflation.
Elevated US Treasury yields lifted the greenback and weighed on stocks.
USD/CHF Price Forecast: The pair is upward biased and would aim towards parity if buyers achieve a daily close above 0.9885.

Christian Borjon Valencia FXStreet

The USD/CHF rallies sharply following a US inflation report that showed CPI is approaching the 9% threshold, increasing the bets of a US Federal Reserve 50 bps hike added to the June and July’s penciled by the US central bank. At 0.9882, the USD/CHF approaches 0.9900 and opens the door for a parity challenge for the second time in the year.

US CPI increased, lifting US Treasury yields on US Fed hike expectations, and stocks fall

Reflection on US data is better illustrated by the equity markets. European bourses plunged and finished with losses, while US equities nosedive, slashing between 2.12% and 3% of their value. The US dollar rose while US Treasury yields skyrocketed, while the Treasury curve inverts.

The US Dollar Index, a measure of the buck’s value, is advancing 0.84%, sitting at 104.177, while the US 10-year benchmark note rises 21 basis points and is up at 3.154%.

On Friday, the USD/CHF opened around 0.9800 and dipped below the figure on the news from Japan, particularly BoJ’s and finance officials, unveiling a document threatening to intervene in the FX markets. The USD/CHF dipped towards daily’s low at 0.9766 but rallied on US data towards highs of 0.9890s

USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The USD/CHF remains upward biased, though at the time of writing, retraced from daily highs near 0.9898. However, buyers are in control and would keep it if they achieve a daily close above the May 19 daily high at 0.9885. If that scenario plays out, the USD/CHF first resistance would be 0.9900. Break above would expose the May 18 high at 0.9984, followed by a challenge of the YTD high at 1.0007.

USD/CHF

Overview
Today last price	0.9882
Today Daily Change	0.0079
Today Daily Change %	0.81
Today daily open	0.9802

Trends
Daily SMA20	0.972
Daily SMA50	0.9638
Daily SMA100	0.9447
Daily SMA200	0.9332

Levels
Previous Daily High	0.9818
Previous Daily Low	0.9724
Previous Weekly High	0.9659
Previous Weekly Low	0.9554
Previous Monthly High	1.0064
Previous Monthly Low	0.9545
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	0.9782
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	0.976
Daily Pivot Point S1	0.9745
Daily Pivot Point S2	0.9688
Daily Pivot Point S3	0.9651
Daily Pivot Point R1	0.9839
Daily Pivot Point R2	0.9875
Daily Pivot Point R3	0.9932

Author

Christian Borjon Valencia

FXStreet

Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.

GBP/USD stays weak below 1.3600 as USD bulls await Warsh's speech

GBP/USD is consolidating near the lower end of its weekly range, below the 1.3600 mark, during European trading hours on Thursday. The pair's downside, however, remains cushioned as traders await Fed Chair Warsh's speech on Friday for more cues about the US central bank's interest rate path before placing fresh directional bets.

EUR/USD holds range around 1.1650 as USD steadies

EUR/USD keeps its range around 1.1650 in the European session on Thursday. Hawkish ECB expectations support the pair as the US Dollar consolidates after the US PCE data-driven advance. The focus remains on Middle East developments and US Jobless Claims data.

Gold holds steady around $4,600 as traders eye Fed's Warsh for rate cues

Gold languishes near the $4,600 mark through the first half of the European session on Thursday and remains close to the weekly low it touched the previous day. The downside, however, seems limited as traders opt to wait for US Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday for cues on the future policy path. The outlook, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the US Dollar price dynamics and provide some meaningful impetus to the non-yielding bullion.

Ripple eases to $1.40, Solana hits $100, DOGE capped below $0.10

Ripple (XRP) and Dogecoin (DOGE) are facing downside pressure after double-digit gains last week, while Solana (SOL) extends its rally to $100. The technical outlook for XRP, SOL, and DOGE points to potential upside as the broader market sustains a risk-on sentiment.

Jackson Hole kicks off after upside PCE surprise

In China, industrial profits rose 17.6% y/y to CNY 4.58tn in the first seven months of 2026, slowing from an 18.7% increase in January-June. The moderation follows several months of strong profit growth around 20% y/y, supported by higher producer prices and solid manufacturing activity.

Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole dilemma: Say too much, too little, or just enough

Kevin Warsh is preparing to deliver his first Jackson Hole speech as Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair on Friday, and expectations extend well beyond whether interest rates will be raised or left unchanged in September.