USD/CHF set for a short-term correction back to 0.9075/98 – Credit Suisse

USD/CHF remains capped below its 21-day exponential average and 0.9017/32, with a move above needed to reassert conviction in the bull “wedge”, according to the Credit Suisse analyst team.

Break above 0.9017/32 needed to reassert the “wedge” scenario

“A move above 0.9017/32 would still reassert conviction in the small bull “wedge” scenario though, which would confirm a correction higher back to the 200-day average at 0.9075/98. This level then needs to cap to keep the broader, medium-term risks lower”

“Our broader bias stays lower whilst below 0.9075/98 and we will look for a renewed turn back lower post this near term correction. Next support is seen at 0.8930/10, which is the 78.6% retracement of the Q1 recovery.” 

“Below the 0.8930/10 area would negate the ‘wedge’ and open up 0.8871/62, which is an important price low. An eventual test of the 2021 low at 0.8757 now seems increasingly likely given the medium-term trend following setup, following the recent cross into outright bearish territory for weekly MACD.”