USD/CHF Price Analysis: Slips on US recession woes, capped by the 100-DMA

USD/CHF takes a hit as weaker-than-expected US economic data spur recession fears, driving the Swiss Franc up.
From a technical perspective, the USD/CHF pair is neutrally biased, awaiting a fresh catalyst for definitive market direction.
Amid mixed signals from market oscillators, expectations of a hawkish Swiss National Bank may provide a catalyst for further USD/CHF downside.

Christian Borjon Valencia FXStreet

USD/CHF slips after clashing with the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.9125, dropping below the 0.9100 mark, sponsored by a soft US Dollar (USD). Weaker-than-expected US economic data stirred recession fears amongst investors. Therefore, the Swiss Franch (CHF) rises, as shown by the USD/CHF pair trading at 0.9063, down 0.27%.

USD/CHF Price Analysis: Technical outlook

From a daily chart perspective, the USD/CHF is neutrally biased, waiting for a fresh catalyst that could give direction to the USD/CHF pair. Meanwhile, the USD/CHF is trapped on the upside by the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.9123; on the flip side, the 50-day EMA is at 0.9037.

In bullish territory, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator aims downwards, while the 3-day Rate of Change (RoC), even though in bearish territory, climbs toward the neutral area. Mixed signals between oscillators might prevent traders from opening new long/short positions. But, expectations for a hawkish Swiss National Bank (SNB) could open the door for further downside.

The USD/CHF first support would be the 50-day EMA. A breach of the latter will expose the 20-day EMA at 0.9027, followed by the 0.9000 psychological support, before diving toward February 16, 2021, Low of 0.8926.

USD/CHF Price Action – Daily chart

USD/CHF

Overview
Today last price	0.9062
Today Daily Change	-0.0030
Today Daily Change %	-0.33
Today daily open	0.9092

Trends
Daily SMA20	0.9004
Daily SMA50	0.9001
Daily SMA100	0.9127
Daily SMA200	0.9376

Levels
Previous Daily High	0.9093
Previous Daily Low	0.9035
Previous Weekly High	0.9148
Previous Weekly Low	0.9014
Previous Monthly High	0.9148
Previous Monthly Low	0.882
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	0.9071
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	0.9057
Daily Pivot Point S1	0.9054
Daily Pivot Point S2	0.9015
Daily Pivot Point S3	0.8996
Daily Pivot Point R1	0.9112
Daily Pivot Point R2	0.9131
Daily Pivot Point R3	0.917

Author

Christian Borjon Valencia

FXStreet

Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.

AUD/USD sticks to neutral bias above 0.7100 amid cautious markets

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7100 in the Asian session on Monday as the US Dollar stalls its modest pullback from the highest level since late July amid persistent geopolitical uncertainties. The PBOC status quo on Loan Prime Rates also weighs on the Aussie. However, bets on another RBA rate hike continue to underpin the Australian Dollar ahead of the Trump-Xi Summit.

USD/JPY eases below 157.00 amid looming intervention risks

USD/JPY is easing back below 157.00 in Asia on Monday, undermined by modest Japanese Yen strength amid looming intervention risks after Friday's BoJ rate check. A Japanese holiday also keeps traders on edge amid escalating geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine and in the Middle East. As a result, the US Dollar pauses its pullback, limiting the pair's downside.

Gold meets resistance around $4,400

Gold kicks in the new trading with on the back foot, keeping its trade near $4,350 per troy ounce. The precious metal’s correction comes on the back of the firmer US Dollar and espite declining US Treasury yields across the curve.

Bitcoin hits $85,000 for the first time in eight months

Bitcoin price reclaims $85,000 on Monday, advancing last week’s 5% recovery toward an eight-month high. The recovery in King Crypto aligns with renewed institutional demand, with Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) recording $433 million in inflows on Friday.

The week ahead: Fuel prices in focus as we lead up to key eco releases

Financial markets are in a strange position as we move to the final weeks of Q3, uncertainty and volatility continue to grip markets, but the oil price is falling; and European and US stocks are poised to open higher later on Monday. Market stresses are concentrated in sovereign bonds, and European and US yields had another scare late on Friday, and moved higher.

BoJ Recap: Not as hawkish as expected

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its short-term interest-rate target to 1.25% from 1.00% in a 7-2 vote, marking another step in the normalisation of monetary policy and widely matching what everyone has been expecting for weeks.