USD/CHF marks bullish daily pin-bar from fresh daily lows


  • USD/CHF printed fresh 18-month lows before demand for US dollar kicked in. 
  • US Retail Sales were solid and supportive for the US dollar.
  • US/Sino trade deal leaves a lot left to be desired.

USD/CHF broke to fresh lows in recent trade which was the lowest since Sep 2018. The strength in the value of the CHF had been attributed to this week’s news that the US Treasury had added Switzerland to its FX monitoring list. At the time of writing, USD/CHF is currently trading at 0.9650 within a range of 0.9652 and 0.9613.

While the US Treasury may have added Switzerland to its FX monitoring list, the Swiss Finance Ministry said in response that its reappearance should have ‘no immediate consequences’ from a domestic policy perspective.

In other news, there is a sense of ambiguity towards the phase-one deal between the US and China for which the safe haven attraction of the Swiss currency could keep it underpinned over time. Yesterday, the ‘Phase-1’ trade agreement between the US and China was finally signed but there is a lot left to be desired. There are significant pledges by China and commitments (on trade) that seem very ambitious. "Above all, we argue that this agreement has created a temporary but unstable equilibrium; the deal could still collapse," analysts at Rabobank argued. 

"Whilst the damage done by the trade war so far is modest, its impact will continue to feed through as long as tariffs remain in place. Moreover, a re-acceleration of trade tensions this year remains our base scenario. This will continue to cause uncertainty and dampen economic prospects throughout the world."

US dollar gets a boost from solid Retail Sales

As for economic data, we have finally seen something relatively positive from the US economy following a string of disappointments of late. Today's Retail Sales was supportive to the US dollar leading to a bullish pin bar on the daily candlestick. Retail Sales in the United States increased by 0.3% on a monthly basis in December, bang in line with market expectation and also matched the previous month’s upwardly revised reading.

USD/CHF levels

Analysts at Commerzbank noted that USD/CHF has eroded the 0.9659/47 recent low and August low to break down into new 16 month lows:

"The close below 0.9647 should be enough to reassert downside momentum and target the September 2018 low at 0.9543. We have the 0.9623 23.6% retracement from the 2015 low ahead of here."

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.

Feed news

Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD pressured under 1.11 amid virus fears, ahead of the ECB

EUR/USD is trading below 1.11, under pressure as fears of the coronavirus weigh on markets. The ECB is set to leave rates unchanged and provide views about the current economic environment. 

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD consolidates gains above 1.31 after parliament seals Brexit

GBP/USD is trading above 1.31, consolidating its gains. The House of Lords gave its final seal to Brexit. Speculation ahead of the BOE's decision continues after upbeat data diminished chances for an imminent move.

GBP/USD News

Forex Today: Coronavirus fears spread and weigh on markets, Aussie surges, all eyes on the ECB

Chinese authorities have shut down access links to Wuhan, the large provincial capital where the coronavirus originates from. The news, coming ahead of the Chinese Lunar New Year, is weighing on markets. 

Read more

WTI hits 7-week low, potential bull RSI divergence on 1H

WTI oil fell to $55.68 soon before press time, the lowest level since Dec. 3, having declined by 3.73% on Wednesday. The black gold has found acceptance below $56.60, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (one of the golden ratio) of the rally from $51.03 to $65.62.

Oil News

USD/JPY drops to fresh eight-day lows near 109.50

USD/JPY extends losses and trades close to an eight-day low near 109.50 in a relatively risk-off environment, with the media headlines full of the coronavirus as it spreads internationally. Bears can look to the golden ratio around mid-108s.

USD/JPY News

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures