USD/CHF keeps the downside corrective – Commerzbank

In view of Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, the pair’s downside is seen as corrective for the time being.

Key Quotes

USD/CHF has started to erode the 55 day ma at 1.0097 – it remains downside corrective, but intraday Elliott wave counts should find support circa 1.0085 and see a rebound today. Support lies at the 1.0020 mid December low. Currently the Elliott wave count on the daily is suggesting that the 1.0020 area should hold although intraday Elliott counts are conflicting. Below 1.0020 lies the .9956 May 2016 high and .9947 50% retracement. There is potential for a slide to the 200 day ma at .9849 (however this is not our favoured scenario)”.

“Initial resistance lies at 1.0150 ahead of 1.0248 11th January high. Above here should be enough to signal another assault on the 1.0328 2015 and 1.0344 December 2016 highs. The 1.0344 level is regarded as a major break up point to the 1.0910 61.8% retracement of the move down from 2005 and we await a CLOSE above this level to indicate that the market is ready to resume its up move”


    1. R3 1.0251
    2. R2 1.0202
    3. R1 1.0151
  1. PP 1.0102
    1. S1 1.0051
    2. S2 1.0002
    3. S3 0.9951