USD/CHF climbs to one-week high as traders brace for Fed and SNB rate decisions

USD/CHF climbs to a one-week high as traders position ahead of the Fed and SNB interest rate decisions.
Markets are firmly pricing an 87% chance of a 25 bps Fed rate cut on Wednesday.
SNB is seen holding rates at 0.00% on Thursday, with policymakers signalling a high bar for any return to negative rates.

Vishal Chaturvedi FXStreet

The Swiss Franc (CHF) trades on the back foot against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday as markets reposition ahead of this week’s key monetary policy decisions from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB).

At the time of writing, USD/CHF is trading around 0.8072, its highest level since November 26, as the Greenback stages a modest rebound. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 99.10, after dipping to 98.79 earlier in the Asian session.

The Franc is struggling to find support even as markets remain firmly positioned for a Fed rate cut on Wednesday. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders assign an 87% probability of a 25 bps move, which would bring the Federal Funds Rate down to the 3.50%–3.75% range.

With the December rate cut almost fully priced in, investors will closely watch Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference and the updated economic projections, which are expected to set the tone for the monetary policy path into 2026.

However, the latest PCE inflation figures and mixed labour indicators suggest the Fed may take a more cautious approach to further easing heading into 2026. US data released on Friday showed that disinflation is losing momentum, with Core PCE rising 0.2% MoM in September and easing only slightly to 2.8% YoY. Headline PCE held steady at 0.3% MoM and 2.8% YoY.

Labour signals were uneven as well. ADP Employment Change fell by 32,000 in November, missing expectations, while Challenger Job Cuts dropped sharply to 71.3K. Initial Jobless Claims also came in lower at 191K, highlighting resilience despite broader signs of cooling.

On the Swiss side, the focus is on the SNB’s interest rate decision scheduled for Thursday, where policymakers are expected to leave rates unchanged at 0.00%. Inflation has eased toward the lower end of the SNB’s 0–2% target range, but despite the unexpected slowdown, policymakers have indicated that returning to negative rates remains a high bar.

The central bank also expects inflation to edge slightly higher in the coming quarters, supporting the case for maintaining its current stance.

Recent reports suggest economists do not anticipate a move back into negative territory in 2026 either. According to the latest BHH Market View report, the swaps market assigns less than a 50% chance of a 25 bps cut to -0.25% over the next twelve months.

Economic Indicator

SNB Interest Rate Decision

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) announces its interest rate decision after each of the Bank’s four scheduled annual meetings, one per quarter. Generally, if the SNB is hawkish about the inflation outlook of the economy and raises interest rates, it is bullish for the Swiss Franc (CHF). Likewise, if the SNB has a dovish view on the economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is usually bearish for CHF.

AUD/USD edges higher above 0.7050 as hot CPI lifts RBA rate hike odds

The AUD/USD pair gathers strength to near 0.7055 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The Australian Dollar edges higher against the US Dollar as hotter inflation data bolsters expectations of Reserve Bank of Australia rate hikes. The US September Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation report will be in the spotlight later on Thursday.

USD/JPY retakes 158.00 as USD stalls the post-FOMC corrective slide

USD/JPY attracts some dip-buyers during the Asian session on Thursday, climbing back above 158.00 as the US Dollar reverses part of the post-FOMC pullback from a two-week high. Bulls, however, await key US macro data – the Advance Q3 GDP and the PCE Price Index – before positioning for further gains. Focus will then shift to the crucial BoJ policy update on Friday amid firming expectations for a December rate hike.

Gold weakens further below $4,050 amid Fed rate hike bets and Iran risks

Gold sticks to intraday losses below the $4,050 level heading into the European session ,and for now seems to have snapped a three-day winning streak to the weekly top set the previous day. The US Dollar attracts fresh buyers after Wednesday's post-FOMC corrective slide from a two-week high and is seen as a key factor weighing on the precious metal.

Pi Network risks another lower leg as the broader crypto market slips

Pi Network is trading in the red on Thursday, retreating toward a near-term support around $0.0740. The Fear and Greed Index declines to 43 on Thursday, while total liquidations exceed $350 million over the last 24 hours, suggesting a deterioration in investors' risk appetite and a sell-side bias. The technical outlook for PI is bearish, with selling pressure building.

Fed's recap: A cautious hold with a clear warning on inflation

The Federal Reserve (Fed) held its policy rate steady at 3.75%-4.00%, but it wasn’t a unanimous decision. Among two officials who wanted a 25-basis-point hike were Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack, while Chair Kevin Warsh said the Fed would use the coming flow of information to decide whether further action is needed. The statement presented a resilient economy.

Anthropic pledged $270 billion to Amazon, Google, and Microsoft. Here's who actually gets paid

Anthropic owes Amazon, Google, and Microsoft at least $269.4 billion for computing power, even if it uses less. All three sell its models and handle its billing, and Amazon and Google own stakes and lend it money, so they get paid regardless of how the IPO goes. The Dario Amodei-led Anthropic filed its initial public offering (IPO) on Monday, seeking a listing on the Nasdaq under the ticker ANT.