Gold under pressure as US Dollar firms and Treasury yields rise

Gold (XAU/USD) kicks off the week on a quiet note, with traders reluctant to take fresh positions ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision on Wednesday. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $4,190, easing after rising to an intraday high of $4,219.

Attention remains squarely on the Fed’s monetary policy meeting, with markets gearing up for another interest rate cut at the final policy decision of 2025, which would bring the Federal Funds Rate down to the 3.50%-3.75% range.

However, the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data and mixed labour indicators are prompting markets to consider that the Fed may opt for a more measured approach to additional monetary policy easing heading into 2026, which in turn is helping the US Dollar (USD) stabilise and pushing Treasury yields higher.

Beyond monetary policy, geopolitical risks also remain in focus, as the Russia-Ukraine war and renewed tensions between Thailand and Cambodia continue to provide a supportive backdrop for Gold.

Market movers: Dollar steadies, yields rise as stalled PCE urges Fed caution

• The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 99.10, staging a modest recovery after dipping to 98.79 earlier in the Asian session. Meanwhile, Treasury yields are edging higher across the curve, with the benchmark 10-year hovering near 4.186%, its highest level since September 26.
• US data released on Friday showed that PCE inflation continues to stall, signalling that disinflation progress is slowing. Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred gauge, rose 0.2% MoM in September, matching expectations, while the annual rate eased only slightly to 2.8% from 2.9%. Headline PCE also held steady at 0.3% MoM and 2.8% YoY.
• Labour data released last week painted a mixed picture. ADP Employment Change unexpectedly declined by 32,000 in November, sharply missing expectations for a 5,000 increase after a revised 47,000 gain in October. Challenger Job Cuts dropped to 71.3K from 153.1K, while Initial Jobless Claims declined to 191K, beating expectations for 220K and down from 218K the previous week.
• According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets assign around an 87% probability of a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting.
• According to the World Gold Council (WGC) report published on December 5, global Gold ETFs recorded their sixth consecutive month of inflows in November, adding US$5.2 billion as assets under management climbed to a record US$530 billion.

Technical analysis: XAU/USD holds range as $4,250 caps upside

Gold (XAU/USD) remains range-bound, with repeated dip-buying interest emerging in the $4,200-$4,180 zone. On the 4-hour chart, the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) is acting as immediate dynamic support near $4,201, while the 100-period SMA around $4,143 provides a deeper cushion.

On the upside, $4,250 continues to cap advances and stands as a firm barrier that bulls must clear to regain momentum. A sustained break above this ceiling would shift the bias more decisively in favour of buyers and open the door for a retest of the all-time highs.

Momentum signals remain muted. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 52, reflecting a neutral stance and aligning with the current consolidation phase. Meanwhile, the Average Directional Index (ADX) at 12.7 indicates very weak trend strength, confirming that XAU/USD lacks directional conviction and remains stuck in a sideways structure.