USD/CAD struggles near 1.3750 as Fed rate cut bets, Oil supports Canadian Dollar
- USD/CAD holds losses as the US Dollar faces challenges amid rising odds of further Fed rate cuts.
- US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expects a 50-basis-point rate cut by the Fed in September.
- The commodity-linked CAD rises as Oil prices rise on a risk premium ahead of the Trump-Putin meeting.
USD/CAD remains subdued for the third successive day, trading around 1.3760 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The pair struggles as the US Dollar (USD) loses ground amid rising odds of further rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). CME’s FedWatch tool indicates that Fed funds futures traders are now pricing in nearly a 94% chance of a 25 basis point (bps) interest rate cut at the September meeting.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview on Wednesday that short-term Fed interest rates should be 1.5-1.75% lower than the current benchmark rate at an effective 4.33%. Bessent added that there is a good chance that the central bank could opt for a 50 basis point rate cut in September.
US President Donald Trump shared his "paper calculation" that Fed interest rates should be at or near 1%. Trump also noted interest rates should be three or four points lower. Interest rates are just a paper calculation, he added.
The USD/CAD pair also faces challenges as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) receives support from the stable crude Oil prices. It is important to note that Canada is the largest Oil exporter to the United States (US).
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price extends its recovery after touching a two-month low at $61.35, trading around $62.20 at the time of writing. Crude Oil prices rise on a risk premium ahead of talks between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Trump warned of “very severe consequences” for Russia if Putin refuses to end the Ukraine war.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
Author
Akhtar Faruqui
FXStreet
Akhtar Faruqui is a Forex Analyst based in New Delhi, India. With a keen eye for market trends and a passion for dissecting complex financial dynamics, he is dedicated to delivering accurate and insightful Forex news and analysis.
