|

USD/CAD steadies as stronger US Dollar offsets support from rising oil prices

  • USD/CAD holds firm below 1.4000 as the Greenback steadies ahead of key US inflation data.
  • Canadian retail sales rise 1.0% in August, though September’s early estimate signals slowing momentum.
  • Investors eye Friday’s US CPI data for guidance on inflation and the Fed’s rate path ahead of the October 29-30 FOMC meeting.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) steadies against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, with USD/CAD advancing modestly after two consecutive days of declines. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.3994, as the Greenback finds mild support while traders weigh mixed Canadian data and volatile Oil prices.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback’s value against six major peers, eased slightly to around the 99.00 psychological mark, after briefly touching a high of 99.14 earlier in the session. The Dollar is regaining some ground amid cautious market sentiment and a rebound in US Treasury yields following recent weakness, though gains remain limited ahead of key inflation data.

In Canada, Retail sales rose 1.0% MoM in August, led by autos and general merchandise, while sales volumes also increased by 1.0%. However, Statistics Canada’s advance estimate for September points to a 0.7% decline.

Oil prices, a key driver for the commodity-linked Loonie, failed to offer much support. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude extends its rebound for a third straight day, climbing over 3.5% to trade around $61.50 per barrel after falling to near five-month lows earlier this week. Prices were buoyed by supply concerns following Washington’s announcement of new sanctions on Russian energy giants Rosneft and Lukoil on Wednesday, a move that heightened fears of further disruptions to global flows.

In the latest developments, Chinese state Oil majors suspended seaborne Russian Crude purchases, citing increased caution over potential Western sanctions. The move has fueled expectations of tighter market conditions in the near term. Meanwhile, Kuwait’s Oil Minister said he expects oil prices to rise following the US sanctions, noting signs that demand is shifting toward the Gulf and the broader Middle East. He added that OPEC is ready to offset any potential supply shortage by rolling back output cuts if necessary.

In the United States (US), attention remains focused on the upcoming US-China trade talks and the prolonged government shutdown, both weighing on sentiment and adding uncertainty to the growth outlook. With focus now turning to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due on Friday, the data will be watched closely for fresh clues on inflation and its potential impact on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook, as markets already price in a quarter-point rate cut at the October 29-30 FOMC meeting.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.01%0.30%0.49%0.03%-0.36%-0.15%-0.03%
EUR-0.01%0.29%0.50%0.02%-0.37%-0.16%-0.03%
GBP-0.30%-0.29%0.20%-0.26%-0.65%-0.45%-0.32%
JPY-0.49%-0.50%-0.20%-0.48%-0.85%-0.66%-0.52%
CAD-0.03%-0.02%0.26%0.48%-0.38%-0.17%-0.05%
AUD0.36%0.37%0.65%0.85%0.38%0.21%0.37%
NZD0.15%0.16%0.45%0.66%0.17%-0.21%0.12%
CHF0.03%0.03%0.32%0.52%0.05%-0.37%-0.12%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Author

Vishal Chaturvedi

I am a macro-focused research analyst with over four years of experience covering forex and commodities market. I enjoy breaking down complex economic trends and turning them into clear, actionable insights that help traders stay ahead of the curve.

More from Vishal Chaturvedi
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7000; remains close to monthly top

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7000 during the Asian session on Friday, trading just below the previous day's monthly low amid diverging forces. A hawkish RBA continues to support the Aussie, while the recent decline in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar depressed near a three-week low. However, oil-driven inflation fears reinforce Fed hike bets, which, along with geopolitical risks, could benefit the safe-haven buck and cap the currency pair.

USD/JPY bounces off one-month low; climbs to 157.00 amid reviving USD demand

USD/JPY rebounds from the 156.00 neighborhood, or a one-month low touched during Friday’s Asian session, with bulls looking to extend momentum beyond 157.00 amid the emergence of some US Dollar buying. Meanwhile, Japan's National CPI rose to a nine-month peak and reaffirmed BoJ rate-hike bets, which could support the Japanese Yen and cap gains for the currency pair.

Gold treads water around $4,000

Gold prices maintain its offered stance in place at the end of the week, hovering around the key $4,000 threshold per troy ounce. The persistent selling bias in the precious metal comes amid decent gains in the US Dollar and an acceptable rebound in US Treasury yields across the curve, all alongside further upside traction in crude oil prices.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin holds the 50-day EMA as Ethereum and XRP face structural resistance

Bitcoin gradually ticks up on Friday, trading above $81,000. The Crypto King has recently defended structural support near $80,000, reinforcing the prevailing bullish outlook. Ethereum similarly edges higher above $2,400, while Ripple trades above $1.32 after testing support around $1.30.

The French bond panic is overdone. Here's what the market is misreading 

France's 10-year government bond yield has climbed above 5%, reigniting fears of a sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone. With public debt exceeding €3.5 trillion, persistent budget deficits and a fragmented political landscape, investors are increasingly questioning the French government's ability to stabilize its finances.

What November 3 means for the Fed's rate path and the US Dollar

The USD faces a decisive period ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. While markets anticipate another interest rate increase from the Fed in December, the battle for control of Congress could reshape fiscal policy expectations and, indirectly, the path of US monetary policy in 2027.