USD/CAD stabilizes around 1.3900 after rebounding from five-month lows

USD/CAD rebounds from Monday’s five-month low of 1.3828.
Fed’s Bostic noted that the US central bank still faces a long path to reach its 2% inflation goal.
Canada’s 10-year government bond yield eased to 3.12% as investors reacted to evolving trade dynamics and ongoing global uncertainties.

Akhtar Faruqui FXStreet

USD/CAD halts its four-day losing streak, trading around 1.3890 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair edges higher as the US Dollar (USD) attempts to stabilize amid mounting concerns over stagflation. Traders will likely observe BoC Consumer Price Index Core data for March due later in the day.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic remarked during early Tuesday’s market session that the US central bank still has a long road ahead to achieve its 2% inflation target, casting doubt on market expectations for additional interest rate cuts.

Deutsche Bank now forecasts a 25 basis point rate cut in December—reversing its previous stance of no cuts in 2025—followed by two more cuts in Q1 2026. The terminal rate is projected at 3.5–3.75%.

Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar (CAD), a risk-sensitive currency, saw support as market sentiment improved following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of tariff exemptions on select tech products—such as smartphones, laptops, and other electronics. The move helped ease fears of a broader economic slowdown amid escalating US-China trade tensions.

Canada’s 10-year government bond yield slipped to 3.12% on Tuesday, retreating from a recent high of 3.27%, recorded on April 11, as investors adjusted to shifting trade dynamics and persistent global uncertainties in line with broader market trends.

Canadian Dollar FAQs

What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar?

The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.

How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar?

The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.

How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar?

The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.

How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar?

While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.

How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar?

Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

BRANDED CONTENT

Finding a broker with low spreads can make a big difference in your trading success. Discover our top picks for low-spread brokers, each offering unique benefits to fit your strategy.

Author

Akhtar Faruqui

FXStreet

Akhtar Faruqui is a Forex Analyst based in New Delhi, India. With a keen eye for market trends and a passion for dissecting complex financial dynamics, he is dedicated to delivering accurate and insightful Forex news and analysis.

EUR/USD trims losses, back to 1.1830

EUR/USD manages to regain some composure, leaving behind part of the earlier losses and reclaim the 1.1830 region on Tuesday. In the meantime, the US Dollar’s upside impulse loses some momentum while investors remain cautious ahead of upcoming US data releases, including the FOMC Minutes.

GBP/USD bounces off lows, retargets 1.3550

After bottoming out just below the 1.3500 yardstick, GBP/USD now gathers some fresh bids and advances to the 1.3530-1.3540 band in the latter part of Tuesday’s session. Cable’s recovery comes as the Greenback surrenders part of its advance, although it keeps the bullish bias well in place for the day.

Gold remains offered below $5,000

Gold stays on the defensive on Tuesday, receding to the sub-$5,000 region per troy ounce on the back of the persistent move higher in the Greenback. The precious metal’s decline is also underpinned by the modest uptick in US Treasury yields across the spectrum.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP upside looks limited amid deteriorating retail demand

The cryptocurrency market extends weakness with major coins including Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) trading in sideways price action at the time of writing on Tuesday.

UK jobs market weakens, bolstering rate cut hopes

In the UK, the latest jobs report made for difficult reading. Nonetheless, this represents yet another reminder for the Bank of England that they need to act swiftly given the collapse in inflation expected over the coming months.

Ripple slides to $1.45 as downside risks surge

Ripple edges lower at the time of writing on Tuesday, from the daily open of $1.48, as headwinds persist across the crypto market. A short-term support is emerging at $1.45, but a buildup of bearish positions could further weaken the derivatives market and prolong the correction.