- A combination of factors assisted USD/CAD to gain some positive traction on Friday.
- A softer risk tone, elevated US bond yields revived demand for the safe-haven USD.
- Weaker Canadian GDP print, a fresh leg down in oil prices undermined the loonie.
- The markets had a rather muted reaction to the mixed US PCE Price Index data.
The USD/CAD pair shot to fresh daily tops during the early North American session, with bulls making a fresh attempt to conquer the 1.2400 round-figure mark.
A strong follow-through uptick in the US Treasury bond yields allowed the US dollar to stage a solid rebound from one-month lows touched in reaction to dismal US GDP print on Thursday. This, in turn, was seen as a key factor that assisted the USD/CAD pair to attract some buying on the last day of the week and rally nearly 70 pips from the daily swing lows, around the 1.2330-25 region.
The intraday positive move picked up pace in the last hour following the release of the Canadian monthly GDP report, which showed that the economy expanded by 0.4% in August. This marked a notable recovery from a modest decline recorded in August but was well short of market expectations for a 0.7% growth and turned out to be a key factor that weighed on the Canadian dollar.
From the US, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge – the Core PCE Price Index – held steady near 30-year highs in September and came in at 3.6% YoY, slightly below 3.7% anticipated. Additional details showed that Personal Income declined significantly, by 1.0% MoM, while Personal Spending rose +0.6% MoM. Nevertheless, the data indicated that consumer cost pressures are getting entrenched.
This, in turn, validated market expectations that the Fed would be forced to adopt a more aggressive policy response to contain stubbornly high inflation. This was evident from elevated US Treasury bond yields. In fact, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond climbed back to 1.61%, which, along with a softer risk tone, continued benefitting the safe-haven greenback.
Apart from this, a fresh leg down in crude oil prices undermined the commodity-linked loonie, which was seen as another factor that provided a goodish lift to the USD/CAD pair. It will now be interesting to see if the pair is able to capitalize on the move and confirm a near-term bullish breakout through a downward sloping channel extending from September swing highs.
Technical levels to watch
|Today last price||1.2383|
|Today Daily Change||0.0037|
|Today Daily Change %||0.30|
|Today daily open||1.2346|
|Previous Daily High||1.2382|
|Previous Daily Low||1.233|
|Previous Weekly High||1.241|
|Previous Weekly Low||1.2288|
|Previous Monthly High||1.2896|
|Previous Monthly Low||1.2494|
|Daily Fibonacci 38.2%||1.235|
|Daily Fibonacci 61.8%||1.2363|
|Daily Pivot Point S1||1.2323|
|Daily Pivot Point S2||1.23|
|Daily Pivot Point S3||1.2271|
|Daily Pivot Point R1||1.2375|
|Daily Pivot Point R2||1.2405|
|Daily Pivot Point R3||1.2428|
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