|

USD/CAD spikes above mid-1.2800s, highest since Dec. 20

   •  Weaker oil prices weigh on commodity-linked Loonie.
   •  USD consolidates recent gains and remains supportive.
   •  Sliding US bond yields now seemed to cap gains.

The USD/CAD pair finally broke out of its Asian/early European session consolidation phase and refreshed session tops in the last hour.

The pair's latest leg of up-move over the past hour or so, to the highest level since December 20, lacked any fundamental trigger and was led by some renewed weakness in crude oil prices. In fact, WTI crude oil extended overnight slide and is currently placed at near two-week lows, which was eventually seen weighing on the commodity-linked currency - Loonie and driving the pair higher. 

Further gains, however, remained capped amid subdued US Dollar price-action, primarily on the back of weaker US Treasury bond yields. Despite firming expectations that the Fed could opt for a faster monetary policy tightening cycle, sliding US bond yields failed to assist the greenback to build on its recent upsurge and was eventually seen keeping a lid on the pair's bullish momentum.

Focus now shifts to important US macroeconomic releases, with the key focus on ISM manufacturing PMI, which along with the Fed Chair Jerome Powell's second appearance before the Congress would be looked upon for some fresh bullish impetus.

Technical levels to watch

A follow-through buying interest could the pair towards the 1.2900 handle, above which the bullish momentum is likely to get extended beyond 1.2915-20 supply zone towards reclaiming the key 1.30 psychological mark. 

On the flip side, any meaningful retracement below the 1.2830-25 region is likely to find support near the 1.2800 handle, which if broken might prompt some additional long-unwinding trade and drag the pair further towards the 1.2755 support level.
 

Author

Haresh Menghani

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

More from Haresh Menghani
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD holds steady above 1.1750 as traders await FOMC Minutes

The EUR/USD pair holds steady near 1.1770 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. Traders continue to price in the prospect of further rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve in 2026, following the 25-basis-point rate reduction delivered at the December meeting. The release of the Federal Open Market Committee Minutes will be in the spotlight later on Tuesday.

GBP/USD finds key support near 1.35 despite year-end grind

GBP/USD remains bolstered on the high end as markets grind through the last trading week of the year. Cable caught a bullish tilt to keep price action on the high side of the 1.3500 handle, though year-end holiday volumes are unlikely to see significant progress in either direction as 2025 draws to a close.

Gold rebounds to near $4,350 after Monday's 4+% correction

Gold is bouncing to near $4,350 early Tuesday, helped by renewed US Dollar weakness and a dismal mood. Gold was hit sharply by profit-taking on Monday during US trading hours and retreated towards $4,300, where buyers reappeared.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries, adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets.

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).